I am taking the screener number of EBITDA for my ease, my calculations will apply to 348 as well. its for the purpose of assigning a EV/EBITDA multiple
Despite the fact that there are higher chances of rerating than derating because of continued strong performance, lets assume it stays 21x
Here is how I calculate it Moreover, they have guided for 200 crores of interest cost and the cost of debt is 10% so the debt should be around 2000 crores(more or less the same at current levels)
10% revenue growth is too harsh, ACIC portfolio will have good margins+ a margin expansion of 4%
and 300 rooms or so are being added to the portfolio in next few months. So according to the management, 100 crore of EBITDA will be added just from these two.
Moreover, REVPAR willl be in the low double digit numbers, lets be conservative and say 10%
This is operating leverage at play and it will straightaway fly to the EBITDA
So, 267+100+30= 400 crores.
a 21x multiple gives 8400 crores crores of EV/EBITDA. Reduce 2000 crores as Debt and you get an upside of 50% for the next year.
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