Zomato has come out with good numbers in Q1FY25. Food delivery Gov grew 27% with margins of 3.4% and Blinkit GoV grew 130% at breakeven margins. Blinkit added 113 stores on base of 526 in the quarter (~20% growth)
The key points I am tracking from my earlier post here –
| KPIs | Expectation | Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Food Delivery GoV Growth | 20%+ | 27% |
| Blinkit Gov Growth | 70% | 130% |
| Adj EBITDA Food Delivery | 4-5% in 2-3 years | 3.40% |
| Ad. EBITDA Blinkit | Can reach Food delivery numbers | -0.10% |
| Store Count Blinkit | 1000 by FY25 | New target of 2000 by FY26 |
- In Q4FY24 letter, management said there will be pressure on margins in blinkit business due to rapid expansion in stores but on positive note the margins have improved QoQ despite expansion.
- Also management gave target to have 1000 Blinkit stores by FY25, now they have given 2000 as optimistic target by FY26. This is 3x growth from current number. Today average GoV per store per day is 10 Lac. This number has increased despite rapid expansion in last year. Even if this sustains at 10L and 2000 stores are online by FY26, GoV can be 60-70K Cr. At 2-3% Ad. EBITDA margin (less than management’s vision), Adj. EBITDA from Blinkit can be 1500-2000 Cr in FY26 itself. This is upward revision to my estimates earlier when I was estimating GoV to be 1000-1500 Cr from Blinkit in FY27
– Add to this 2000-2500 Cr of Adj. EBITDA from Food delivery, total Adj. EBITDA can be 3500-4500 Cr in FY26 and they might end up beating my FY27 estimates of 4000-4500 Cr Adj. EBITDA
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