In the morning trade, most of the shares of major logistics firms were trading in green. Gati Ltd was trading 4.63 per cent up at Rs 161.45 (at 11.18 am). (Photo: PTI)
Chandan Taparia
Nifty future has seen rollover of around 68.31 per cent for November series as compared to the October rollover of 73.62 per cent. The rolls are in line compared to the last six month average in terms of percentage. Chandan Taparia, derivative and technical analyst, Anand Rathi Securities tells Financial Express Online that foreign institutional investors are turning net seller, and medium term trend is still under pressure, therefore the overall scenario may keep the trend in positive to range bound mode for next coming weeks. Excerpts from the interview:
Q. Nifty started the November 2015 series on a negative note and fell down towards 7,725 zones then finally settled the series with loss of around 3 per cent. How the series was pan out and what is your take for the December series?
A. November series started on negative note as it could not hold crucial hurdle of 8,330 zone in the last week of October series and continued to slide lower in the November series as well towards major support of 7,725 levels. It managed to hold above 7,700 zone with the Put writing support and witnessed a recovery of around 175 points from lower levels in last two week of the series. It has been struggling to hold above 7,850-7,900 zones from last ten trading sessions and if manage to give a decisive breakout with positive trigger above 7,850-7,900 zones then a smart move cannot be ruled out towards 8100-8150 zones which is 61.80% retracement of this entire fall from 8336 to 7714 levels.
Volatility index fell down by 5 per cent in this series from 17.58 to 16.69 after the passing of an event of Bihar election result. Falling volatility indicates that every decline is being bought in the market as of now but at the same time not expecting much upside as FIIs are turning to net seller and medium term trend is still under pressure so the overall scenario may keep the trend in positive to range bound mode for next coming weeks.
Q. Nifty index continued its pace of selling for first two week of the series and finally closed negative on series to series basis even after a recovery in last week, which sector contributed most to take the Nifty on negative side?
A. Yes, Nifty closed negative on expiry basis with a loss of around 2.80 per cent with a fall in volatility post Bihar election results. IT, pharma, capital goods and selective banking sector contributed the most in the downfall while auto and selective oil & gas sector stocks supported the index to hold above its major support. FII’s have sold Rs 7,500 crores worth of shares in cash market in the entire series while domestic players were supporting the market with their sustained buying activities which supported the market on declines.
Q. What is the view for December series as per recent data?
A. Now, index needs to hold above 7850-7900 zones to witness a fresh leg of rally towards 8,100-8,150 zones. While, if it fails to hold its 7,725 levels then momentum may fizzle out and index may revisit to September lows of 7,550 levels.
Q How is rollover data?
A. Nifty future has seen rollover of around 68.31 per cent for November series as compared to the October rollover of 73.62 per cent. The rolls are in line compared to the last six month average in terms of percentage.
Q. Any view on sectors which are observing better or less rollovers?
A. Fertilisers, metals, media, cement, pharma, power, capital goods and oil & gas sectors are among the top in sector wise rollover. Lower rolls were seen in automobile, telecom, FMCG and textile sector stocks.
Q. What about the rate sensitive Bank Index futures?
A. Bank Nifty outperformed the broader market as in this series it is down by 1 per cent as compared to Nifty’s fall of around 2.80 per cent. If Nifty has to start the next movement, then Bank Nifty has to participate and hold above 17,250 zones to take it to 17,800 then higher levels. It has support near to 16,800 then 16,666 zones.
Q. Any trading ideas to play on the market move for next series?
A. In the auto space, I am bullish on TVS Motors, Ashok Leyland and Mahindra & Mahindra. One can also consider Dabur India, HUL in FMCG stocks. I also see some upside in Arvind Ltd, Voltas and Crompton Greaves.
However, I have negative view on selective PSU banks, metal and pharma counters.
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