imo, one should only look at the distillery division, since that is what is driving the value:-
| Q1FY25 | Q1FY24 | YoY | Q4FY24 | QoQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 119.23 | 105.61 | 12.9% | 186.51 | -36.1% | |
| EBIT | 29.66 | 17.46 | 69.9% | 58.23 | -49.1% | |
| % | 24.9% | 16.5% | 31.22% |
It’s not as bad but looks optically bad due to seasonality and current valuations.
Valuations
For FY24, distillery division did EBIT of 131crs. It has done 30crs in Q1FY25, which is ideally the weakest. Most likely, on a full year basis, distillery division should touch 180crs of EBIT (assuming 0 extra capacity gets sold in FY25). Assuming 15 crs of fin cost, we get a PBT of 165 crs or a PAT of 123 crs for the distillery. 55x (reasonable given the capacity add for next year) multiple gives you 6765crs of mcap or 717 closing price.
I do expect the stock to correct by ~20% in the near term. Long-term, the growth is intact.
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