History is irrelevant in this stock given the changing business model. Key question to answer is does USL show a QoQ jump between June & September. Here’s the data:-
| June | September | QoQ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 | 2,667 | 2,867 | 7.50% |
| FY23 | 2,419 | 2,911 | 20.34% |
| FY22 | 1,722 | 2,508 | 45.64% |
One can ignore FY22 as being marred by Covid wave 2, but FY23 and FY24 numbers are pretty evident.
Also another point on capacity – if one has seen the 40-50 minute video of the tour of piccadily, towards the end you can see that in the new warehouse, whiskey is maturing in new barrels since 2022. So its likely they’ll take some of it out for sale in Q3.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESC6KU1NaXA – see from 37 min onwards
Madhu in this video says, younger barrles have been purchased “over the last few years”. So whiskey etc / liquid is already maturing in some of these barrels. This is confirmed as you move forward in the video & Madhu shows you barrels that have been stocked since 2022. So its likely some of this extra capacity would be released in the market towards Diwali
If I take a 10% QoQ revenue jump for Piccadily, and around 15% QoQ jump in EBIT, we get 132 crs & 34crs of EBIT for Q2. Q3 and Q4 should be bumper given season + extra capacity + new launches (maybe?)
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