Piccadily Agro Industries Ltd

I believe sales for Indri declined QoQ due to inventory build up caused by sudden demand spike and fall.
Now, during summer months all the inventory at retailers got liquidated and generated a demand of 25,000 cases. So, this is the base, which is now firmly established, and from here on expect Indri sales to grow steadily. In winter months of Q3 & Q4, we should expect a big spurt again.

Below are some points I was able to deduce based on latest and past filings:

• PAIL sells Indri for Rs 20,000 per case (Rs 1660 per bottle)
• In Distillery segment – 50cr revnue came from Indri and maybe 5cr from other premium products and the remaining 65cr from ethanol, maly spirit, country liquor, etc.
• QoQ result decline wasn’t just about Indri – it seems approx. ~30-40cr was due to Indri, and the remaining 20-30 cr was due to fall in sales of other products. I suspect sales fall to be in ethanol due to some gov. policy issues and in malt spirit as now PAIL wishes to store malt spirit in barrels to make Indri single malt rather than sell the raw material to other companies to make malt whisky.
• PAIL sells Indri at an EBITDA of >40% – that is just stunning !!

And some anecdotal observations:

• I went to 2 parties in the last 1 month and at both the places the only whisky being served was Indri
• I went to 2 liquor store in South Delhi recently. One said Indri is their top selling brand and the other said that Indri has replaced all other whiskies and is now the default option at wedding & other parties
• Everyone of drinking age has heard of Indri. Most talk favourably about it and so many take pride in drinking it as a great Indian product. I observe the brand stickiness.

My view:

• I expect FY25 EBITDA to be ~180cr.
• Numbers could be a lot higher for the total EBITDA if the capacity expansion starts contributing
• Indri would easily be 100cr PAT brand by FY26 and still growing strongly.
• Distillery segment (excluding Indri) will continue to grow as new capacity comes online and sales of ethanol, malt spirit, IMFL, etc continue at their natural pace.
• Expect many new launches & brands going forward
• I expect a lot of buzz to be created around Camikara in the next few months – everyone will be talking about it just as they did with Indri