Thanks @SA24 Sukrit for starting the thread, I was thinking to do so…
Am invested and it’s 5% of my PF and my investment price is from 78 to 102. Obviously am biased. Am also invested other new age businesses like Zomato, PAYTM.
My theses of OLA investment:
- Bhavesh A – as said am biased and may put him top 5 new age entrepreneur in India. He may be the only one who founded 3 unicorns.
Staring with cab he defeated giant like uber – highly commendable.
He is the catalyst of growth of EV in India. Ola E is the only co who develops own products. Am invested in endurance and in con call they said except ola all EV’s are their client (Ola has own manufacturing).
On soft side – his twitter followers are similar of DP of Z, VSS, Nitin k etc. Why this is important? Such founder doesn’t need much paid advertisement (like tesla).
- Second is automobile 2 W business. As per Motilal oswal study 2 w business is great with 4 points out of 5. This means it’s great business where all player fairly plays in line (High ROCE) of paints and cigarette. Good business to own.
2 W legacy player are so good and dominant, falls among few rare industries where they beat Chinese players handsomely. Bajaj and TVS are No 1 and 2 in most Latin A and African market.
- EV as theme which will surely disrupts ICE.
Debt: I was not able to find exact position of debt before IPO. As am refrain of putting money in highly debt company. Am much comfortable with Zomato and paytm due to their excess cash even they were loss making. This gives assurance that they won’t be bankrupt in nr future.
As per con call ola has 2700-2800 cr gross debt and 1300 cr gross cash in hand that is june 30 end data Pre IPO, post IPO looks ok on debt front.
Negative comments:
I also went RHP and lots of videos of users. Yes many comments are negative however this is somewhat obvious with your sudden growth etc and am sure they will be working on proper resolution. On other side actual users also share positive comment and they are, mainly, heavy users are satisfied.
Specs: The specs OLA is offering is amazing, particularly 8 yrs of battery warranty whereas others are stuck in 3 years. 30-35% cost of EV are of battery, this will be most important aspect of choosing OLA. Others specs are range, torque etc.
2 W penetration: EV provides smooth ride and due to torque and power able to give good pickup. I believe tesla’s acceleration can beat any ICE car, same may happens, if so EV bike can beat both low segment (Hero) and high end like RE.
Risks:
A. High attrition: However as per me this is good at starting phase of co. You are having such high bar where only high performer survives (Must read books by Netflix founder – rules no rules).
B. Divert businesses – this is real risk if he fails put CEO like people for most businesses.
C. Cell: Failure of cell technology is the most important and visible risk as per me.
Successful Entrepreneur can create magics. Like Zomato vs swiggy – swiggy was more innovative and powerful with higher market share (45-55) than Z before IPO, Now mkt share reverse (55-45) Z to S. This is as DP got good management bandwidth hence now he may able to do small innovation etc and able to continue his new product journey.
Same may happen with BA, if he finds success in cell and OLA – seems sky is the limit – first he penetrates OLA to outside India and may enter 4 W and other cell technology etc.
Disc: Invested and my views are biased, also proved wrong many times in past, not Sebi registered and not buy sell advice. I am sell / buy without prior updates.
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