Went through the concall Q1FY24.
Pranav Choksi said the company is expecting Rs 1500 Cr in ’27-’28 (3-4 yrs from today) at better margins.
Bull scenario:
Gufic does 1800 cr (additional 30% over guidance) in 3-4 years, margin 20% (200bps more), PAT 240 cr. If current valuations sustain, price ~2.5x
Base scenario:
Gufic does 1500 cr (as guided), margin 19% (guidance expected to improve), PAT 180 cr. Say PE ~30, price ~1.6x
Bear scenario:
Gufic manages 1200 cr (30% lower than guidance), margin 18% (no improvement), PAT 130 cr, PE goes back to 5yr median, price ~1x
Bear scenario looks less likely (possibly recency bias), anything between base and bull case is a good bet in my opinion.
Invested. Looking to buy more on dips.
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