They said owner was unavailable during concall but I can see constant posts since 12th Aug on his Instagram handle (which is public). My guys was posting pictures with parrots and doing Marathi podcasts and ducked the tough call. Also, did anyone actually email the CS (cs@khil.com) on any of the tough questions which the CFO passed? She sounded very frazzled and not confident at all.
So many tailwinds in hospitality sector that they need to try really hard to mess this up. Hoping that this was intentional to get favourable merger valuations and they would ramp-up the execution from Q2 onwards. Can’t see any other reason for the sudden capex on their Pune and Goa properties or maybe management hasn’t been completely honest on state of these properties.
Also, risk is that they will definitely not add 600+ keys in this year, more likely 300 which should boost revenues a bit with most of the profit margin coming from interest reduction so even with no re-rating, there can be decent upside. I have stopped calculating their interest costs as they make no sense to me and looks like even the CFO is clueless.
Still plenty of safety margin at this valuation that I’m not super concerned yet, waiting till Q2 results. The company has delivered on debt reduction and demand still outpacing supply + good weather + pickup of domestic travel.
CFO mentioned that their ARR almost halved due to low demand. This basically implies a severe lack of pricing and consequently brand power. Not good to hold in a downturn.
Key questions:
- EBITDA margins: Basically impacted due to lower ARR.
- 23 Cr of capex is still left from 25 Cr so doubtful margins go back to previous levels.
- How much lease expense that they’re going to incur?
- Additionally, the issue is their ARR and keys growth
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