Vikas… this info is very much available in public domain. Sajal Kapoor like collaboration and hence his views are biased.
I have a different view, Natco did CDMO in 1990s early 2000 as job work and already moved ahead in value chain while other players (not so competent) are doing that now. It is not easy to go against patent and win the litigation, need lot of guts to challenge Innovators. As per Sajal Kapoor, Natco is an extremistan, but I see Natco as a DoD business instead of QoQ or YoY. Look at last 10 years data on valuation parameters like sales CAGR, profit CAGR, ROCE and ROE to understand what I mean to say. The tons of cash Natco is generating and continue to generate through Revlimid till early 2026 will help the company to grow inorganically. Moreover, in the recent con call, Rajeev mentioned that Semaglutide launch is expected in 2026 in India, this will keep the growth momentum going as it will contribute significantly being a wonder drug.
Mutual funds were thinking that Revlimid is a one off, hence were valuing company as base business + Revlimid, hence were reducing their holding in Natco. As a result, MFs hold only 2.7 percent stake now, which is at 15 years low (never went below 5 percent since 2014). Now, looking at growth, they will end up buying it again at higher price.
I may also be biased as Natco is my top holding, but will continue to hold for another 7 years. If Divis can be a 1.25L crore market cap company and Laurus can be a 40k crore market cap company, Natco can also be a 2.5L crore market cap company, just new couple of more Revlimid like opportunities.
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