i understand this rule pretty well and have made money shorting stocks (a disclosure). So let's take an example of cupid and understand this:
- The cap is decided by the "present" circuit filter of the day and price is decided based on that cap w.r.t previous quarter ending, so for the present quarter the price would be calculated based on Sep 30 closing price.
- Cupid started this quarter with 20% circuit and the price as on Sep 30 EOD was 196.50 rs. Therefore, the Oct end quote price would have been 393rs (100% for month) and Dec end should be around 590.
- Now sometime during Nov the circuit was revised to 10% and therefore, all the calculations of step 2 can be thrown out of the window. Now the monthly cap would be 60% and quarterly is 100%. Now on oct end the price was 245 therefore, cap of 60% price max could be around 392 and cap for quarter is 100% of sep 30 price which is around 393. Therefore, if my calculations are right even from tomorrow there would be no upside in price.
- BAD NEWS, what if the price is revised to 5%, then the price would be reduced. This happened in one of my small caps. I was shocked, but that's what happened.
- GOOD NEWS, step 4 wont happen because for circuit to be revised downwards UC has to come and right now with price limits UC wont come.
- Now, if circuit is revised to 20% during this quarter, Step 2 will come into picture and price will suddenly move upwards.
Now obviously the price is not 393 but 397 and this 1% error comes in a lot of scripts that i have seen, not sure why but mostly the price is right. Hopefully the above examples helps.
Let's hope better sense prevails, and BSE rolls back this stupid rule, cannot see any logic in it.
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