Maize prices are currently > Rs 25 per kg – at this price operating margin (for making ethanol) is either Nil or negative… this has been the case for past few months… it will reflect in poor Q2 numbers.
Q1 was still ok as maize prices had come down to 21 / 22 in Q1 (due to Rabi crop harvest) and then shot up in July to 25.
Prices could come down only in Oct/ Nov due to kharif harvest…
Very unlikely that rice will be released by FCI.
Another possibility is if Govt allows non-food maize to be imported… but that too wont happen as Bureaucracy is too slow and conservative and the politicians are occupied with elections !!
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