Harshad Bhai,
IMHO, admin/moderators or other members with good intentions aren’t saying that detailed & complete analysis should be done before posting, neither the expectation is that one should know everything.
An incomplete analysis with gaps (many gaps) can also present a balanced view [presenting risks (atleast basic risks), objective/reasoning behind one’s purchase, intention/view type of holding or place it occupies in the portfolio].
Also RISKS are not only business risks etc., but we can also simply state the points that we might not have considered or were not able to get information on (as having not given thought to these points itself maybe a risk).
The point that is trying to be conveyed is that each member especially a member who understands markets a bit more needs to be cognizant of who is the audience in the forum as well. Not everybody in the forum is equipped to understand risk factors on their own and there may be members who might just get carried away by what is written (without giving much thought to what is not written). Admin’s point should also be considered in the light of from whom the comment or post is coming from, as admin expects more from an old timer or a new member who has been responsible till now. Admin knows that such member can put in a basic balanced view maybe without putting much efforts and hence it is being encouraged.
Let me try to address this with the help of a small example of the Kellton thread itself. The information could have been presented in a different manner as below to make it more balanced and could have covered maybe basic or bare minimum risks.
Risks/Points to be cautious of:
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Stock price volatility – The stock has appreciated a lot in the past XX months and can be very volatile as it has seen many upper/lower circuits. Same maybe the case in future and therefore stock is not for somebody who can’t digest volatility.
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Promoters – Promoters have good qualifications but I haven’t been able to get their past track record in their previous business ventures and hence their past record in running a business is unknown.
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Business – Many (almost) all IT companies boast of similar businesses/capabilties that Kellton talks about and hence it is difficult to differentiate between Kellton’s business (stengths, etc.,) with the competition.
Valuations :
Trades at XX TTM PE which looks high but expected earnings growth is high or XX% hence at a 1 year forward basis it doesn’t look expensive.
Invesment objective/view – I have brought this company as a play where I see fast earnings growth to reflect in the stock price and not as a core fundamental investment idea. It is more similar to a earnings based momentum trading pick that I might exit at any time. However any views that can help build a stock story are mosty welcomed.
Disclaimer :
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I don’t understand this business very well and hence can comment only on the overall industry/business prospects of these segments in general and not on Kellton’s performance/prospects in these segments.
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Acquisitions – Need to dig more on how these acquisitions might have benefitted (or otherwise) the company. [Nobody expects details on this front as not everybody (a novice/new member) might be able to understand this (i.e. valuations at which acquisitions were done, margins of acquired companies, etc,.,), but atleast a note of the same can be made by stating something like above, so that readers know that this is a point that should be considered].
I have just given a very basic example using some of the existing points from the initial thread itself of how things could have been presented in a different manner.
I hope this attempt gives a bit more clarity on what is being tried to conveyed.
Kind Regards.
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