Though the revenues are increasing, the story that the management paints and the reality aren’t matching. Management wanted the exports revenue share to go to 50% and reach 75% eventually. But the reality is, the domestic revenue share is 86% and exports is 14%.
Supporting this claim, the management says that they have presence in 100+ countries and that they have been getting inquires from multiple countries across the world, North America, Australia, Middle East, Nepal, etc. This is to create a narrative that they are diversified now and hence the revenues should be more predictable.
Let’s look at their order inflows in the past few quarters starting from Q2’23 till date: 461 → 2863 → 410 → 1215 → 1529 → 402 → 1141 crores
Of these, the biggest order was from BSNL (domestic telecom), second biggest order seems to be from PGCIL. They secured 9 contracts from PGCIL in the last 12-15 months.
From the recent concalls, the management confirms that the revenues from EPC, railways, North America are pretty less and that the railway revenues may decrease this year. However, they seem to have got a good order from Australia, not sure of the size though.
Putting all these into perspective, Skipper is a domestic player, largely dependent on PGCIL and the telecom tailwinds (revival packages to BSNL from Govt).
For Skipper to grow 20%, they should get order inflows of around ~ 1200 crores, every quarter, or pretty huge orders (once or twice every year) from the existing clientele. Unless there are tailwinds in domestic sectors that Skipper operates in, I am not sure how that is possible. If any, due to the economic conditions, the orders from PGCIL may dry up or slow down (as has happened in 2019).
If it helps, FIIs have reduced their stake from 9% in June 2023 to 3.6% in June 2024, promoters have reduced their stake from 71% to 66% in the last couple of quarters.
| Subscribe To Our Free Newsletter |
