Thank you @ganeshrpl and @fabregas for detailed inputs.
Yesterday I scanned through AR of Kernex. Have also been reading on Kavach opportunity and challenges involved in various magazines and articles. From what I could understand, since 4.0 is a big upgrade over 3.2, development, testing and migration, and certification of all vendors for 4.0 is taking a lot of time. There are multiple departments in railways that are involved which is adding to a lot of friction, in-fighting and overhead.
Also, original plan was to slow on roll-out but with recent accidents there is lot of pressure on govt to get this rolled out across majority of the rail network. However since Railways worked with smaller companies for developing the technology, the available capacity is very limited against the massive demand. Hence the push to get more vendor partners onboarded…but given the complexity of the technology and stringent railway certification requirements, this is going to take a lot of time.
So while the demand is huge, awarding tenders, announcing results, deployment of the technology, testing and railway acceptance is going to take a lot of time. No instant miracles here except for order book wins that might aid the companies share momentum price in bull run. Given the way railway operates, most of these vendors will have long implementation timelines, very long WC cycle, negative cashflows and lumpy payments.
Just my 2 cents.
Disclaimer: invested in HBL and Kernex
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