This is a typical product lifecycle. It should go down for a while and how it comes up depends on quite a few things such as:
- cost of making the vehicle is coming down, but can the manufacturers slash the price to increase the volumes… how do they handle customers who just bought the vehicle / how sure are they about the future of EV (in my opinion, EV is the future…)
- people are realising the cost of ownership of EV is higher than what they initially budgeted (Battery replacements, Wait periods at charging/anxiety…). Technology & ecosystem should emerge to improve cost of ownership.
- novelty is wearing out and the next set of users should see significant value (in terms of cost and convenience…)
- Policy & tech issues can affect the speed: Hydrogen appears to be at a distance, but there is enough noise around and if that works well, it can seamlessly get into the existing space… On policy things like promoting alternates such as Biofuel and Hybrid could confuse decision making…
The amount of investment that has gone behind EV probably ensures its success, even if the other alternatives are marginally better “To big/precious to fail” syndrome…
Will be interested in your views…
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