Geekay Wires Ltd

This Update would be Biased, so don’t take it as recommendation and do your own study:

Feel Geekay is still a good company, but management seems to be out of the track & also business can face some headwinds in near future. Reason:

1. Topline Growth is almost stagnant from last 6-7 Qtrs. Bulk of the PAT growth was due to improvement in Margin
2. Company has done Capex but the fruit hasn’t been seen till now
3. Margin was expanding due to SS Products & Falling commodity prices (Might reverse from here on)
4. Why? FED & Many Central Bank has started lowering rates (Commodity & Int Rates has inverse relationship). So, commodity prices can rise from here on & Geekay able to transfer it to customer might be a question!!
5. ASP Pvt Ltd lending (Why would anyone invest in other co. if they can compete with them; Geekay size is small they can use that to expand its Biz rater than others)
6. Valuation: It was cheap due to ASM/ESM reason… Now PE is at 15-16x (Near to its Peers) with company not showing much growth it might be near to its fair value
7. Base Effect: Now last 4 Qtr base is also high (So might face low to no growth from here on)

In short, Antithesis comes out to be more than growth outlook with Geekay showing No Growth, Margin can fall due to commodity prices can rise from here on, Capex not utilised at most, Management want to invest in other fastner company, Base Effect & Valuation turns out to be fair

Some Positive are:

1. Borrowing cost is decreasing & CFO is also Positive & Rising); Can see Deleveraging benefit
2. As in AGM says they can grow 8-10% & margin can rise due to new products or (if commodity price rises & still they able to pass on then) ; If that played still then again it can see good momentum with Margin Expansion, Deleveraging
   Track such things; will too track if they can walk the talk (Then again it might look lucrative bet)

No Reco
P.S: Not Invested Now (Sold it near 95-100 levels & from their also it is 10% up)

• I might be totally wrong in this, so do ur analysis before doing anything