Most good SME IPOs are taken by trading firms like Mansi and Multiplier on listing and not even a single share is left for retail. The stock then goes into upper circuit for few days when they are dumped on retail. It then falls 30 to 40% after which slow accumulation starts.
In mainboard IPOs, most stocks are bought by retail and DII at listing. It depends upon the valuation and fundamentals of the company. Most companies list at high valuation and falls for few months after listing. Some companies list at low valuation and don’t fall. For example, I bought Senco Gold Ltd at listing due to low valuation.
I have noticed that GMPs are right 80% of the time. The listing of most companies happens within narrow range of GMP. If the GMP is 0, expect a negative listing.
Sometimes the GMP is manipulated to sail an IPO with weak fundamentals. Most IPOs in bull market are over subscribed anyways.
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