I am investor in ITD Cem since last 4 years. I have entered this script at @ 65-85 range…total 2500. Sold 1000 at @ 150, Further sold 500 @ 101 (After Hindenburg report). Still holding 1000.
Sharing my tracking.
Q1/24 AUDIO RECORDING.
Management is optimistic for revenue and margin. Banglore metro provisioning continued to hit PAT even though Q4/23 was probably the last provision. A new order win is important. Issue raised for poor dividend distribution.
Q2/24 – AUDIO RECERDING – EXPECT REVENUE OF 8750 CR (+ 25% OVER FY 24 GUIDANCE OF 7000 CR)
HDFC SECURITIES – ITD Cementation (ITD) reported quarterly
revenue/EBITDA/APAT of INR 16.1/1.6/0.5bn. EBITDA margins: 9.8%
(+405/+101bps YoY/QoQ, vs. our estimate of 8.7%, owing to lower input and
raw material prices and lower employee expenses, partly offset by higher
fixed and other overheads). With an OI of INR 45.8bn in Q2FY24, the H1FY24
inflow stood at INR 48.2bn (-32.7% YoY; vs. FY24 guidance of INR 80bn+),
taking the Sep’23 OB to INR 220.8bn (~4.3x FY23 revenue). The OB is well diversified, providing a natural hedge from a slowdown in any particular
business segment. The net D/E, as of Sep’23, stood at 0.34x vs. 0.49x as of
Jun’23. ITD maintained its FY24 revenue guidance at INR 70bn+ with an
EBITDA margin of 10%+. ITD has incurred a capex of INR 2.4bn in H1FY24
towards construction plants and equipment. With this, it does not expect
much capex excluding the Bangladesh marine project. Given the better
margin profile and stronger execution in H1FY24, we reiterate BUY, with an
unchanged TP of INR 254/sh (11x Sep-25E EPS)
Q4/24 Result update
- Order book @20K
- Bid pipe line @ 28K
- DE ratio 0.6
- Expected 50% order inflow from overseas
- Margins are better in overseas orders
- Focus on revenue growth and profitability while bidding
- Nuvama TP 460
@ Month back parents has informed that they plan to exit india business, price reacted by @-10%
Q1/25 Earning call audio recording points
- Ganga exp way 55% comp, last Q billing 600 Cr, less billing will be there in this quarter due to monsoon.
- Bangladesh job yet not started nor mobilised. Mobilstion adv recd, project cost 1500 Cr, this year plan 400-500 Cr.
- Parent company selling stake, no update to share, technology self sufficient.
- FY 25 revenue guidance 15-20%, margin @10%.
- Overseas margin better, risk factored.
- Domestic Marin and tunnels margin better.
- Order received current Q 2000 Cr. L1 in 2000 Cr.
- Current Year order receipt will be @ 10000-11000 Cr.
- Current year tender pipe line 35K, overseas 10K, domestic 25K.
- Q1 capex spent 25-30 Cr. Year plan 150 Cr
- Current order book 7% overseas, rest india.
- My estimate of results is better than expected
POST RESULTS PRICE REACTED BY+11%
20/9/24 – News of Adani buying promoters state leads to 20% upper circuit 565.65
01/10/24 – Market crash, ITD Cem shines.
ITD Cementation surges to its 20% (643.55) upper circuit as it bags an order worth Rs 1,937 crore to construct a multi-story commercial building in Uttar Pradesh.
Changes in share holding pattern – Q on Q / Year before
- Promoters holdings – 46.64-46.64/46.64
- Promotors pledge – 0-0/0
- Promotors before 10 years – 51.63 Reduced to current level in April 2018
- FII – 13.46-17.08/20
- DII & MF – 1.65-1.2/4.3
- Public – 30.92-34.46/35.34
- Big investor – Yes but not famous
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