The calculation is a rough estimate. This is how I calculated it:
- Create a list of all currently listed BSE stocks. So there is survival bias - I dont look at companies which disappeared, but they may not have contributed much to BSE market cap.
- Fetch market cap stock price history from BSE. BSE provides quotes adjusted for splits/bonus.
- Average stock prices across the year to get an annual price for stock. (AnnualPrice/CurrentPrice)*MktCap should give historical market-cap measure.
- For each year, add all marketcap grouped by sector and represent as a percentage.
- Plot
Beyond survival bias, there are some problems with the data
- Like @lustkills mentioned, the right category for any stock is unclear. I did some cleaning on my own but it is grossly inadequate.
- Convertible receipts like ADRs are not something I can handle. So I just ignore it
I spent some time looking at the numbers and I see two broad trends - Consumption cycles and Investment cycles. It is my personal opinion that this is the start of an investment cycles (with many false starts and delays). Each cycle then breaks down further into a few sub-cycles. Unfortunately there isn't enough data to make a definitive statement.
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