A lot of things look good here from my readings except for a few major concerns:
- Company wants to do a capex of 800-850 Cr in the next 2 years. Even after warrants and debt (assuming 250 Cr debt cap as mentioned by promoter), company needs ~400-450 Cr for which they will need to do an equity dilution
- Assuming CMP, that means 0.3 Cr additional shares worth of equity dilution. Another concern is that they might again decide to take a large discount
- An additional 0.1 Cr equity dilution is pending in next 1 year through warrants
- Looking at the median PE over last 10 years for Suyog and Indus, all the upside due to growth is currently baked into the CMP
- No margin of safety
- No visibility on future roll-outs for growth visibility – BSNL is now rolling out 4G, who knows how long they’ll wait for 5G. VI situation might improve further but their projects would lead to high working capital days and might impact ROCE
- Their margins are relatively high and might reduce if they keep expanding but that seems to be far into the future, their sales are still <1% of Indus
All their numbers are phenomenal but they operate in an oligopolistic market which limits growth via either pricing power or new customer acquisition
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