Websol energy system ltd

Hi Apoorve, Thanks for sharing this here. I would like to share my thought on this as below;
Kudos to this thesis posted on twitter handle. My compliments to them . However, the data should be taken with caution before processing into our brain. I could find the joy and unnecessary enthusiasm in the words which is common for anyone who come across a undervalued company for the first time. It sounded good till first half of the thread where the Annual PAT of 170 Crs. was estimated with solar cell production data which is almost close with many of our conservative estimation ((600 MW*90%/12)*9 months))1.1 Crs. NPM 25% + Q1 PAT 23) = 134 Crs, but the second half started sounding more of a fin-fluencer/influencer tone to me. Hence i ignored the second half of the thesis. The reasons are as follows;

1. Annual PAT of 170 Crs. is with an assumption of 30% NPM which may not be sustainable as input wafer cost is decided by China weekly (Mr. SL Agarwal statement in recent AGM) and not in control of Websol. So, taking 30% NPM straight for the whole year is misleading. As it is a commodity, price fluctuation is part of the business.
2. The Twitter handle cited import data of Centrotherm machinery components. Firstly, Those are not looking like main equipments, those are sub assemblies/components/parts which are required for regular preventive maintenance and replacement under warranty for failed components. (As module line production is still under ramp up, the possibility of component failures and replacement is normal.)
3. Secondly, management clearly informed us that the expansion is still under planning and they will inform us once it is materialized. They don’t have enough area to expand at the Falta SEZ. Hence, Company already announced that the second phase of expansion shall be implemented at a new location in Odisha under a subsidiary company namely Websol Kalinga green energy./suitable name etc. The proposed company is not registered in MCA website till now.
4. Developing a 1.8 GW cell line in Phase-2 in a virgin land outside their existing state without SEZ tax benefits is a humongous task for Websol as the fund requirement would be more than 1000 crs. (DRHP of Vikram, Premier, Waree has machinery quotations from Chinese manufacturers but Websol traditionally uses Centrotherm germany equipment’s which is costlier than Chinese.) I am personally expecting some US/Europe based company collaboration for 2nd Phase expansion.
5. In one of the convertible warrants meeting, Mr. SL Agarwal was reading the snippet given to him like “we are expanding the cell line by another 50% in Falta SEZ” i.e., 300 MW in addition to 600 MW. I even recorded the video but there was no follow up official intimation to BSE/NSE. or in the Q1 results. So I ignored it as a slip of tongue. The second 33 kV line is true as twitter handle provided with the WB Govt. tender proof. However, it is a replacement for old line or for expansion purpose is not clear.
6. The most haunting question in investors mind is whether Websol will self consume their in house cells for module line or use the outsourced cells?. Websol registered Solar cells of 242 MW till Oct in DCR portal. So, there is a possibility of selling in house Cells to DCR market and using the outsourced cells for module line. Twitter handle’s thesis with NPM of 30% for both module line and cell line will fail in big way if they self consume the inhouse cells. Projected revenue of 2280 Crs will become almost half to 1200 Crs. Hence, need further clarity from management.
7. If they sell Cells and modules separately in the open market then module may not qualify under DCR category as min. of 55% of domestic content is required to qualify as DCR. Further, the best NPM of module only players are around 10-13% only. So in anyway, Rev of 2280 Crs. and PAT of 685 Crs. with a assumption of 30% NPM for 1.2 GW cell and module is a distant dream with phase-1 alone. It is misleading. Needs clarity from management.
8. However, Twitter handles help in taking the company to many retail investors. With visibility, the buy/sell pressure comes. I hope that was the main motive of that twitter thread. My best wishes and compliments.
9. Thesis and Antithesis should exist together to avoid biased information and to take neutral informed decision.
10. All the above points are all my personal opinion based on the publicly available information limited to my knowledge. I am not an expert and I may be completely wrong. Request others opinion and feedbacks to evolve together.