Ola Electric – Full Stack EV play?

I’d offer a different perspective.

1- EV scooters are not really a tech innovation in strict sense of the word. Plus tech on scooters, bikes, cars are nothing new. It’s a mature space and has been around for years.
2- The fact that other players (Bajaj or TVS) are not facing these complaints means that it’s a company specific issue.
3- I have heard from many investors who bought Ola stock hoping to get similar returns as in Zomato. I believe that hope is partly driven from the perception that Ola is a tech stock. But it’s a wrong perception. Ola end of the day makes scooters and their unit economics will be the same as any other 2-wheeler maker which makes me question whether premium valuation 8 x sales (even at stock price of 90) is sustainable when players like Bajaj or TVS are going at 4-5 x.
4- On purely brand level Ola still doesn’t have the same strength as a Bajaj or TVS. And since there is really no difference between product features, one needs to question why customers will pick an Ola scooter over a Bajaj or TVS unless there is a big difference in prices.
5- Speaking of #4, can Ola play a price game? This is anybody’s guess. What I think is unlike big players Ola doesn’t have deep pockets to engage in a prolonged price war and will be at the mercy of capital of their investors with an already burgeoning debt on their books. Big players on the other hand will have no problem playing a price war taking a temporary and small hit on their strong balance sheet.

A case in point here is Tesla. Company and stock did very well when it was the only player producing a high quality EV car. But as soon as new entrants came and BYD started nipping at their heels Tesla ended up losing market share and investor confidence. Stock got severely punished too.

In Ola’s case they don’t even have the luxury of Tesla to build critical mass without worrying about competitors. And steep loss in their market share since entry of big players is a worrying sign. So even if they could fix all the product issues, going for Ola will keep getting tougher.