No I have factored in the stock price not moving for next 4-6 qaurters while entering. Also I am making staggered buying and have started at 2.0x book and will try and average around 1.8x book.
My thought is that I am buying a player which is least levered on net debt basis compared to peers and should last for the next 6 quarters. Also lowering of cost of funds in the future will allow Arman to increase leverage at lower rates, while the peers are levered and will have to raise equity which may be difficult to come by.
When the dust settles I expect Arman to be there and this is anyways 10% of portfolio where I can take a 50% hit and still manage the loss.
To note that over 10 years Arman stock price has given the same CAGR as the increase in the book value per share (BVPS). Also the book has never degrown and Arman has never reported negative PAT. This allows the BVPS to increase at bare minimum 10% and assuming same P/B the stock should give a bare minimum of 10% p.a. if held for 3-5 years.
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