The Ideal Investment Thesis

Hi All,

New to this forum and relatively new to the investing world (I began actively investing around June-2021). Over the last 3.5 years, by reading books, annual reports, and multiple other public documents and material, I’ve been trying to sharpen my investment thesis. Posting it below for feedback and comments:

Goal: Which company to invest in and why?

Thesis:

• Financial Robustness
  • Debt = 0
  • Interest Coverage > 10
  • ROCE (EBIT/(NWC+NFA)) > 25%
  • Revenue Growth CAGR over last 5 years > 15%
  • PAT Growth CAGR over last 5 years > 15%
  •Average OPM over last 5 years > 10%
  •Cumulative FCF over last 7 years > 0
  •Cumulative OCF over last 7 years > 0
  •Inventory Days < 90
  •Receivables Days < 90
  •Cumulative PAT over last 7 years =~ Cumulative OCF over last 7 years

• Business Metrics
  • Is it a monopoly/Oligopoly/Duopoly?
  • Market share in industry? Is it growing?
  • Does the company have pricing power?
  • Is pricing regulated by the government?
  • Is the volume growing over time?
  • A qualitative aspect of volume growth over time? New markets? New products? New customer segment? Change in product lineup?
  • Does it have enough capacity to meet the increasing volume?

• General Metrics
  • Age of company in the public markets
  • Management Quality
  • Reputation among stakeholders (customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, partners)

• Industry Metrics
  • TAM (Global, Local)
  • Industry Growth Rate
  • Convergence Pattern among players in Industry
  • Customer Power/Fragmentation
  • Supplier Power/Fragmentation
  • Competition in Industry
  • Threat of new entrants

• Strategy Metrics
  • Is it a turnaround situation?
  • Is it an M&A Junkie?
  • What is the company moat? What is its competitive advantage?
  • How is it allocating capital?
  • How much is annual Capex spend? As % of revenue?
  • What is the growth strategy? What is the sustain strategy? Are both sustainable?
  • Is it a volume play or a value play (Mass vs Luxury)?

• Valuation Metrics
  • Average PE Ratio over last 5 years < 30
  • Current PE Ratio < 30