Due to huge excess capacity and negative margin, Grain based ethanol industry will face a huge crunch… many of the companies will default… capacities will shut down and then balance will be restored. even then the returns will be very moderate…
the companies realising this and folding up earlier will be better placed as the more they delay the interest accumulation on defaulted loans can be extremely high… and what is the point in holding… at the end the industry is going to be low margin for a very long time…
unless Govt. allows import of GM maize… which is vurtually impossible in our country… even for ethanol production.
If others can share their views… it can give a clearer picture on how this industry will evolve.
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