Dmart as a business is a fantastic business. But a great business may not necessarily mean a great investment. An oft repeated saying in markets is price is what you pay and value is what you get. So even great businesses have to be bought at right time and right prices. Coming to why it started falling, fundamentally there can be a number of reasons.
But on charts, the clues were present in Negative divergence in RSI Indicator in weekly chart. In April stock price made a high of 4890 and RSI made a high of around 78. But in recent rally to 5400 plus in Sep 2024, RSI was lower and could not even cross above 70. These kind of negative divergences may not always play out, but can provide early warning signals to be on the toes to look out for any major negative chart developments on chart front. First real signal on daily charts was a gap down day on 3 Oct 2024, where stock price closed at 4942, and since then it has been mayhem in price action and it closed at 3986, a cut of nearly 1000 rs within a few days.
OAL was in a flag like consolidation since nearly 8 weeks and last week gave a breakout above falling trendline. It has been retesting its previous key breakout level at 503. Usually this retesting is not restricted to an exact price point, but in general the price keeps dancing around that level without really breaking down too much. And once consolidation is over, (which may take a few days to few weeks depending upon the time frame of chart) there can be a breakout. disc: I own it and remain bullish.
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