QC’s biggest dependency is cheap labour costs. As far as I am aware, this is why it has been successful in EMs but not in DMs.
As a country, we have two paths ahead: we will make productive use of our demographic dividend and get richer per capita or risk falling into the middle-income trap.
In the former, the labour force should flow into more lucrative manufacturing jobs and there might not be enough cheap labour for QC. The burgeoning middle class should expand consumption for all products and the terminal value factored in D2C business shall be realised.
In the latter case, where we stagnate, while cheap labour remains available for service, the consumption could stagnate and the terminal value of D2C businesses evaporate.
If drone delivery materializes based on regulations, and costs, this could help boost QCs and will be a further detriment to the physical retail model.
Lots of unknowns in the thesis on both paths.
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