Jindal Drilling – Beneficiary of a sustained offshore upcycle?

I miscalculated the JV profits in the above calculations. The actual PAT nos. should be significantly more than what I have calculated. Let’s redo again in brief

1. Baseline standalone PAT number = INR 32 Cr
2. Additional PAT from Jindal Supreme = INR 15-18 Cr
3. When rig Jindal Pioneer is purchased by Jindal Drilling, then it can contribute INR 18-20Cr PAT at standalone level to Jindal Drilling. This is basis the fact that at JV level (49% ownership), this asset is contributing INR 9-10Cr PAT below the line as on date.
4. Adding item nos #1-3, post Pioneer acquisition, the standalone PAT itself can look like INR 65-69 Cr per Quarter
5. At a consol level, JV Virtue Drilling Pvt Ltd. (owner of rig Virtue I) will continue
   contributing below the line PAT of INR 9-10Cr per Quarter on top of the standalone numbers.

So, at a consol level, Jindal Drilling can report Quarterly PAT of INR 74-79 Cr post Pioneer acquisition. Even without the Pioneer acquisition, the company should report Quarterly PAT in the range of INR 65-69Cr per Quarter.

Somebody pointed out that Jindal Explorer will be out of contract in May 2025, impacting PAT. The nos won’t be significant because

1. Management expects Jindal Explorer to extend its contract till Sep 2025 (Q3 earnings call)
2. Jindal Explorer is a rented rig which is on the lowest day rate of < 39k USD/day. Hence its the least profitable of Jindal’s current rigs. I won’t be surprised if it was earning an EBITDA margin in the 5-10% range, i.e. in the 1950-3900 USD/day range. This should not translate to a PAT loss of more than INR 1-2 Cr per Quarter. Thus, barely an impact.
3. There’s a good chance Jindal Explorer will bag a significantly more remunerative contract either with ONGC or in International waters post a brief refurbishment hiatus of a couple of months. That should only add to the PAT numbers discussed above.