After quite some time, I am reviewing Olectra for its good results. Looks like new greenfield own plant is ready with a capacity of 200 buses per month. Teething issues are behind and 156 buses in Q1 and 315 buses in Q2 rolled out from there. H2 they are sure about rolling out 1000+ buses and capacity to roll-out 2500-5000 buses in 2015-16 and 10000 bus capacity by 2016-17. Valuation cooled little bit from the roof as good Q1 & Q2 results did not positively impact the stock prices. They claim to cross be the first to have 10000 bus order book ahead of Switch Mobility, Tata Motors and JBM Auto etc. Their insulator division also doing good with good margins. They claim that agreement is in place with BYD until Dec 2030. JBM Auto results did not see much change and I cannot see any concalls or Investor presentations from them. I did not yet study how both Tata Motors or Switch Mobility from Ashok Leyland doing. Other competition names I noticed in documentations are PMI Foton and JBM Solaris (Latest credit rating report by ICRA). If execution happens as promised, situation looks good.
What are the counter thesis? BYD-China disruption is a key risk. Promoter shadiness/connections and recently has names in Electoral Bonds could be another.
Those who track Electric Buses space closely, can you more details comparing current players. Concalls speaking that Govt intends to roll-out 8 Lakh e-buses by 2030. Other than overall market sentiments/fear of correction and elevated valuation compared to other players, are there other concerns? Any one is tracking the order book/Plant capacity/last 2 quarter delivery numbers of JBM Auto, Tata Motors, Switch Mobility and other players? Ashok Leyland latest concall I could notice about 960 bus orders for this year and 400 for next year.
Disc: Entered Olectra around current levels for about 5% of PF. Not qualified to advise.
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