There is always an issue of quality of disclosure. I refuse to believe that highly experienced management of Voltamp with long track record of excellent execution will face certain supply chain issues that others are not even acknowledging.
Let’s look at TRIL and Schilchar more closely.
TRIL reported good numbers because of low base effect. Company and stock did nothing for many years till Q2 of last year. Then suddenly there were 3-4 good quarters which makes their quarterly results look super duper. Stock prices and valuations went sky-high in no time. TRIL trades at 10 times sales (voltamp trades at 6 times).
Shilchar shows slightly better execution pedigree (which is to not say much) than TRIL but I can’t figure out for life of me the sudden 2X jump in their operating margin in last 1 year. You can’t have such big divergence between margins between one player and the rest of the sector. And if it’s there it’s not sustainable.
Valuation wise, the less said the better, Shilchair, trading at 15x sales, thanks to and lots of speculation seen in the stock.
In general I am wary of the companies, in tailwind sectors, that suddenly start showing good numbers after several years of average or non performance. Mostly it takes either great luck or magic for such turnaround.
I have seen many cases of book cooking or corporate governance coming to light, crashing stock prices. Look no further than Brightcom which was reporting excellent figures during a time when digital marketing industry was in a duress. Not saying TRIL and Schlchair are up to something but it’s always good to ask questions.
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