There could be a few reasons
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Selling overhang from long term PE investors who want to exit. I don’t think ACIC (Asiya Capital) will sell immediately as the deal happened at Rs 230/share for them, so they are still under water. But there is still enough overhang from others as can be seen from the DRHP. Further selling can open up after March 2025 when more shares get unlocked for selling.
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Samhi still has high net debt of 2000Cr and a net debt to equity ratio of 2:1. Markets like deleveraged businesses especially if they are capital intensive asset heavy businesses
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Due to the high costs below EBITDA – interest costs and depreciation – PAT is low and the stock appears to be expensive if calculated on a PE basis. For ex, I think best case PAT in FY25 for Samhi would be INR 100 Cr (Assuming zero tax) and even at CMP, that’s a 42x PE. An asset heavy business like this should be valued at EVEBITDA or EV/CFO rather than PE but many investors do track PE.
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On an FY25 basis, the stock is probably trading at 14-15x EVEBITDA on a forward basis. I wouldn’t say this is crazy undervaluation for a hotel business on an absolute basis. But it is significant undervaluation in comparison to peers like Chalet who are trading at 28-30x forward EVEBITDA. I think fair valuation for Samhi should settle somewhere between these 2 valuations nos. I think 30x is rich for a hotel business.
If Samhi can show a 425-450 Cr EBITDA run-rate from Q2/Q3, then I think the market will start discounting that on a run-rate basis. Any one time large deleveraging (say via QIP) event can also help re-rate the stock.
Disc: Invested and biased. Above is just speculation on my side, not any recommendation.
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