RIL: Is the ‘Reliance” on ‘Jio’ Justified?

The entry of Starlink and other satellite broadband providers like Amazon’s Project Kuiper into India, with the support of the government for administrative spectrum allocation, poses notable risks to Jio’s business in several ways:

Key Risks to Jio’s Business from Starlink’s Entry

1. Competitive Pricing Pressure:

• Starlink’s model of administrative allocation, which avoids auction-based spectrum costs, enables it to potentially offer services at more competitive rates than Jio and Airtel. Jio, which has invested heavily in terrestrial infrastructure and spectrum auctions, may find it challenging to match this pricing flexibility without incurring additional financial strain.
• By bypassing auction costs, Starlink and similar players can focus more resources on scaling services rather than recovering spectrum expenses, giving them a potential cost advantage.

2. Market Shift in Rural and Remote Areas:

• Satellite broadband is especially beneficial in remote, rural, and underserved regions where laying terrestrial infrastructure is costly and challenging. While Jio has made strides in rural connectivity, satellite broadband could capture market share in these hard-to-reach areas by providing high-speed internet without extensive physical infrastructure.
• If Starlink can deliver internet at a quality and price accessible to these communities, it could rapidly become the preferred option, reducing Jio’s expansion opportunities in rural markets.

3. Diversion of High-End Users:

• Starlink offers high-speed internet with lower latency than many terrestrial broadband options, attracting tech-savvy, high-spending customers who prioritize performance. If Starlink’s services are priced competitively in India, Jio could see some high-end or corporate customers shift to satellite broadband for more reliable speeds and connectivity, particularly in regions prone to infrastructure-related service interruptions.

4. Potential Regulatory and Policy Adjustments:

• The new Telecom Act of 2023, which allows administrative spectrum allocation for satellite providers, introduces an advantage for Starlink that Jio and Airtel currently lack. If regulatory support for satellite broadband continues to grow, terrestrial providers may face increased regulatory and policy hurdles as the government seeks to balance growth across both sectors.

5. Strategic Dependency on Satellite Partnerships:

• Bharti Airtel has already partnered with OneWeb (a satellite internet provider), suggesting that major telecom players may increasingly rely on satellite technology to supplement their offerings. Jio may need to consider partnerships or significant investments in satellite broadband to stay competitive, potentially diverting resources from its core terrestrial focus.

Starlink’s Potential Pricing and Accessibility in India

1. Estimated Cost Structure in India:

• Based on global trends, Starlink’s pricing in India could involve a one-time equipment cost (likely around ₹30,000–₹40,000, or $360–$480) and a monthly subscription fee potentially ranging between ₹2,000–₹3,000 ($24–$36).
• While these costs may be manageable for urban or corporate users, they would be expensive for many in rural or low-income areas. Jio’s more affordable, wide-reaching plans may remain preferable for the average consumer due to the lower cost of terrestrial options.

2. Affordability for Common Consumers:

• The monthly cost of Starlink, although potentially lower in India than in the U.S., could still be prohibitively high for much of the population. Jio’s existing user base, particularly in urban and semi-urban regions, may remain loyal if Jio maintains cost-effective plans that meet everyday data needs.
• Starlink may attract a niche audience willing to pay for premium, high-speed service, but widespread adoption among average consumers may be limited due to affordability issues.

Will Satellite Broadband Compete Directly with Terrestrial Broadband?

1. Complementary Rather Than Direct Competition:

• Satellite broadband is likely to be more complementary to terrestrial networks than directly competitive. Satellite is ideal for areas where laying physical cables and towers is impractical or too costly, while terrestrial broadband remains more cost-effective and efficient in densely populated areas.

2. Niche vs. Mass Market:

• While satellite broadband is capable of offering high-speed internet, its initial user base will likely consist of consumers in remote or underserved areas or those who prioritize high-quality connectivity regardless of cost. For urban and suburban regions with well-developed terrestrial broadband, satellite may be used as a backup or specialized service rather than a primary internet source.

3. Corporate and Government Applications:

• Industries requiring reliable connectivity across large or remote sites, such as oil and gas, mining, agriculture, and defense, may favor satellite broadband. Similarly, government programs for rural digital inclusion may increasingly support satellite broadband adoption, especially where terrestrial options are less feasible.

At the same time, one must remember that Starlink’s Adoption has been slower globally, especially in Africa. Why is it so?

1. High Cost of Equipment and Service:

• Starlink requires customers to buy a satellite dish kit, which is expensive upfront (often costing between $400 to $600) and has monthly service fees of around $110 in many countries. This cost structure is high for many consumers, particularly in lower-income regions like Africa, where average monthly incomes are often below the subscription costs.

2. Regulatory Challenges:

• In various regions, including parts of Africa, Starlink has faced regulatory and licensing hurdles. Additionally, some governments are cautious about allowing satellite providers, particularly foreign ones, due to data security concerns or conflicts with domestic internet policies.

3. Supply Chain and Scaling Limitations:

• The production and distribution of satellite equipment have been slower than anticipated due to supply chain disruptions and the logistical challenges of reaching remote areas. These hurdles have impeded Starlink’s scaling efforts, particularly in regions with limited distribution infrastructure.

Sources: In a win for Elon Musk, Scindia says no to spectrum auction pitch from Ambani, Mittal – The Hindu