Key negative statement from concall is the potential downward revision in revenue growth targets. They had initially guided for 25% which seems to be at big risk now. Business model so far is dominated by what credit card companies determine as benefits and any reduction or pull back in benefits would impact their core model. That’s also probably one of the reasons why it does not fall in a MOAT category even though it has 90% market share in lounge business.
Overall concall was disappointing and revenue growth drop indication should reduce the PE and some of the other valuation parameters by 20% in my view.
I invested recently with 5% of my PF value with the thesis that revenue would continue to grow at 25% and margins having stabilized might bump up by couple of % over a period of 2-3 years. Anti thesis was the fact that card companies continue to pull back benefit and that seems to be playing out still so the view has gone wrong.
Hoping that card companies are at the last stage of reducing benefits which hopefully should stabilize the numbers and probably after a year the growth comes back to 25%. I guess am hoping agaisnt hope now. Anticipating some pain but might stay invested. Over a very long term probably betting on India story where travel in general increases significantly which should continue to benefit the company model.
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