My overall impressions from Q2 FY25 results/call:
Divestment – No overseas business divestment at all for now, last 2+ years confusion is done & dusted. Some businesses (like battery) may be consolidated into one entity & then one location and surplus/out-of-date facilities/equipment will be sold off.
Depreciation – this money goes mostly into automating/re-tooling current equipment to keep them working/efficient.
Fund-raising – as of now an enabling provision valid for 1 year. Use for pre-paying debt, value-added products (IBC, LPG, CNG Cascades) expansion.
Value-added products – CNG cascades utilization is at peak (90%) with expansion delayed by 2-3 quarters & coming on-stream only in Q4 FY25. Not expecting huge growth there in FY25 but overall value-added products seeming to be trending up ~2-3% as overall % of revenue nicely YoY.
LPG – promising for too long but full utilization only since last year, with current normal ~14 kg cylinder being developed with more dealer out-reach; may be volumes will move in next 1-2 years.
Since steel price rise, composite LPG cylinder price is nearer to steel + all associated advantages.
Expecting 790-815 cr FY25 EBITDA & hopefully lesser depreciation & debt improving PBT more.
Optionalities in 2 years, by FY27:
CNG cylinders for auto
Optionalities, but don’t expect to contribute in a big way for atleast 2 years:
Cylinders for drones, oxygen, fire
Tracking points from curr/prev calls:
FY24 – CNG Cascades FY25 sales expected to be ~80-85% more than FY24 with same % profitability. Status – holding up overall.
Composite products (CNG Cascades + LPG) will be overall Rs.1,500 cr revenue in 3 years (FY28?) from TTM (~575 cr)
Discl: Invested since 2018, added more till 2023, never sold, big part of portfolio both by cost(> 10%) & value (22.5%).
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