I mostly use Economic value added method.
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (24-09-2024)
Interesting article
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/-market-coupling-in-the-power-sector-is-india-doing-enough
Sharing a gist of it :
- Market coupling would fulfil its objectives only if India were to take the Market-Based Economic Despatch (MBED) route, where the country’s entire generation becomes market-driven. However, when the share of trade through market exchanges is a mere 7 percent of the total generation, market coupling could fall short of discovering a uniform market price.
- Globally, market coupling has been introduced to integrate two or more electricity markets or geographies. The proposed market coupling in India is unlikely to yield any benefit as it would only be a coupling of power exchanges without adding new geographies. Further, the dominance of IEX over almost the entire market share in collective transactions wouldn’t change the price discovery or liquidity and have a negligible social welfare impact.
So we would end up having uniform power pricing for less than 10% of the Electricity traded over the Exchanges while more than 90% of the Electricity generated would be negotiated via their own Long Term PPAs. We would still end up with non-uniform prices.
NOTE: These PPAs are sometimes 25 year long contracts and are still being negotiated/awarded making uniform pricing a pipe dream even in the future.
Seems more like the Government / Power Ministry is merely using the buzzword “Market Coupling” to shine in some International reports without any actual benefits on the ground.
Margin Of Safety (Stocks & Index) stocktrend.net (24-09-2024)
I already mentioned how he arrived at this number.He took cost of equity of that time and then took reciprocal it to get the no growth P/E.Cost of equity is not a stagnant number.It keeps on changing with risk premiums and risk free rates.As you said, It was derived hundred years ago.It means you are assuming cost of equity of U.S.A which was hundred years ago.You took average.But,Average multiple already has growth premium.why would you double count the growth?.Argument is simple no growth P/E is 1/Ke.That’s why you add growth multiplier.By your method, Overvalued may seem undervalued.I will advise you to look at the modified formula of Graham.I have seen lot of people using no growth P/E of 7 and growth multiplier of 1.5.There is no thumb rule for growth multiplier.It is really subjective and we really don’t know how did he arrive at growth multiplier of 2.Eps is an accounting number.I really don’t care about EPS.TTM P/E can be misleading.Assume company has done significant capex financed with debt.It will curtail the EPS and due to depressed earnings company may seem Overvalued.It doesn’t reflect true earning power of company at all.Economic value added method works best for me and I’m comfortable with that.Furthermore,Average multiple of sector is not a good measure.Whatif whole sector is overvalued like defense then cheapest in that sector may seem undervalued.
Hyundai Motor India IPO gets approval from market regulator Sebi: Report (24-09-2024)
India is the third-biggest revenue generator globally for Hyundai after the U.S. and South Korea
52 week highs and all time highs strategy (24-09-2024)
Company : VA Tech Wabag Ltd
- Classic VCP pattern breakout
- Last leg tight price consolidation.
- Observe shakeout given before it starts to breakout
- Stock is in uptrend
- I feel continuation of pattern will play out
Disclosure : Taken position (Please go through concalls and earnings to develop conviction)
Rupa and Company (24-09-2024)
Can anyone provide insights on what is happening with Rupa now?
Nazara Technologies (24-09-2024)
Nazara is pretty much a holding company at this point, as they no longer develop in-house gaming titles. They just keep jumping from one acquisition to another. Most game publishers globally talk about their upcoming releases, but Nazara talks about acquisition targets.
The problem with this M&A playbook is that they have to keep acquiring companies all the time to show growth because casual mobile games have a short shelf life. What is popular today might not be played by even 50% of those users 3 years later. Revenue of the fairly popular Animal Jam has declined from $18.6 million in CY2020 to $11.4 million in FY24.
Can’t really compare Nazara to Tencent. Gaming industry in China is at a whole another level with one mobile game making $2 billion annual sales. Although Mittersain constantly talks up the “future potential” of gaming and esports in India in every podcast and interview, the promoters sold a large chunk of their stake near the 52-week low.
I randomly checked a few casual mobile game companies listed in US, Korea, China and Japan and they all trade at very low earnings multiples and understandably so.
Disc: had invested last year and exited a couple of months ago with small gains. Sum of all parts valuation didn’t really make sense anymore.
New milestone: Sensex scales 85K and Nifty tops 26K, then retreat (24-09-2024)
The 30-share Sensex peaked at 85,163 but closed slightly lower at 84,914, down 14.57 points, or 0.02 per cent, from the previous day