The second quarter earnings season is underway and as many as 170 companies will declare their results this week. Some of the marquee names include Titan, Asian Paints, PB Fintech, IRCTC, IRFC, RVNL, Mazagon Dock Ship, Tata Steel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Trent, LIC, MRF, Tata Motors, and SBI among others.
Posts tagged All News
Tanla Platforms ~ Leading player in the fast-growing CPaaS market (03-11-2024)
The biggest con which is why I believe both Tanla and Route don’t have a durable moat is that large clients(at least the ones that have only domestic business like banks etc) will start integrating with Jio and Airtel CPAAS directly.
Jio and airtel combined have 70% + market share. So for any large client(and even smaller clients that later become large) it will make sense to make that one time investment to integrate it with Jio and Airtel CPAAS directly as it will be more reliable(reduces end-to-end latency and makes it easier to track message delivery status) and cheaper.
FMCG cos worry over high inflation; price hike likely (03-11-2024)
Leading FMCG companies reported a decline in margins in the September quarter on account of higher input costs and food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of urban consumption. Rising prices of commodity inputs such as palm oil, coffee and cocoa were also accentuated and some FMCG firms have hinted at a price hike. HUL, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), Marico, ITC, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) have expressed concerns over squeezing urban consumption, which according to industry experts forms 65-68 per cent of FMCG total sales.
US presidential election, Fed interest rate decision, FIIs trading key market movers this week: Analysts (03-11-2024)
A host of macroeconomic data announcements such as HSBC India manufacturing PMI, US S&P global composite PMI, US S&P global services PMI and global trends would also drive the markets, experts say
Mcap of 6 of top-10 most valued firms jump Rs 1 lakh cr; State Bank, ICICI Bank top gainers (03-11-2024)
The combined market value of six leading firms increased by Rs 1,07,366.05 crore last week. State Bank of India and ICICI Bank saw the highest gains. However, Tata Consultancy Services, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and Infosys faced a decline in their market valuation. Reliance Industries remained the most valuable company in India.
Tips Industries Limited – Ready to RACE ahead! (03-11-2024)
The music label business is not a usual business, where people understand cycles.
I feel this is an unchartered territory. The difficulty in valuing Tips is understanding how long this growth can last. Tips will do 30% topline and bottom line in FY25 for sure. But can they repeat this in FY26 and FY27?
If they can, this is a fair valuation.
If the valuation goes excessive (90-100 PE), one can definitely exit. Because the company will be a 15000 Cr company at that valuation – assuming very bright future in times to come. Risk reward will be quite lopsided.
Happy to hear more views please
Tips Industries Limited – Ready to RACE ahead! (03-11-2024)
Really interesting and most relevant point you have covered here
Prakash and Manoj.
Adding on to your discussion I personally believe that TIPS might even trade near 100 PE
Here’s why
- The 30%CAGR PAT and sales growth is a very conservative guidance given by the management.
They have been giving same guidance since past 3years and easily managed to grow way beyond that.
Also I have watched many interviews of kumar taurani he has been very confident that in next 3-4 years the industry size can easily grow to 12-15k crores which is 4-5 x of current industry size
So you can get an Idea about next 3years of PAT and sales of TIPS considering a 10% market share.
Also if we look at the paid subscription not even 1cr indians have shifted towards paid till now. So you can imagine how much scale is possible in next 10-15years.
2 Music is an integral part of any Indian wedding and currently we Indians hardly pay for the music public perfomance rights and this segment has the potential to generate 10-20k crores of revenue alone – kumar taurani mentioned in a podcast.
- now look at all the consumer facing businesses in India like Nestle,britannia etc
Their past 10yr median PE has been around 50-75 and their 10 PAT and Sales growth has been around 8-10% CAGR only
But why such high PE ? When they are hardly growing at double digits
Because of extraordinary high ROCE and ROE
That too with high FREE CASH FLOWS.
This is what I believe
And now comparing TIPS which is also a consumer facing business
75 PE at 30-40% PAT growth is not too high and also even when the growth phase stops after 5-10 years still I believe it will trade at around 50-60-70 PE range.
Let me know what all of you think ?
Aaron Industries Ltd- The Elevator Play (03-11-2024)
What gives them right to win? They have done capex what gives visibility of going ahead to have additional revenue of 150 cr from this? Is there any thing special to them?
Disclosure: new to to the company & studying the company
FPIs withdraw record Rs 94,000 cr from Indian equities (03-11-2024)
Foreign investors pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around $11.2 billion) from the Indian stock market in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of Chinese stocks. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024.
Ranvir’s Portfolio (03-11-2024)
Bajaj Auto –
Q2 FY 25 results and concall updates –
Revenues – 13247 vs 10838 cr, up 22 pc
EBITDA – 2073 vs 2130 cr, up 23 pc ( margins @ 16 vs 20 pc )
Other Income – 399 vs 552 cr
PAT – 1385 vs 2020 cr ( sharp drop in PAT is due to provisions made by the company because of changes made on capital gains in the union budget in July )
Weakness in EBITDA is arising from weakness in their European subsidiaries and JVs ( selling KTMs in EU + US ) – resulting in a loss of aprox 550 cr for H1 ( Share of Bajaj Auto’s loss )
Cash on books @ 16,400 cr
Company could maintain their EBITDA margins @ > 20 pc ( in the standalone business ) despite fast growing EV sales which now constitute 20 pc of domestic revenues ( EVs have significantly lower margins )
EVs ( Chetak + E-Autos ) + CNG vehicles ( 3Ws + Freedom 125 cc bike ) now constitute 44 pc of company sales
New areas of growth should include – Chetak EVs, Freedom 125 cc CNG bike, E-Autorickshaws, CNG – Autorickshaws and Triumph Bikes
LATAM mkt is seeing good growth ( 20 pc plus ). Mexico is doing really well. Bajaj Auto is now the leader in Mexico in the premium segment ( now the World’s 4th largest 2W mkt ). Dominar sales in Mexico are now more than Dominar sales in India !!! Asia sales continue to be steady. African sales have started to recover ( post a really bad Q4, Q1 ) – although still much below the peak levels
Because of better growth in LATAM, the product mix in exports in improving which should lead to better EBITDA growth vs sales growth
Company expects to clock around 20k unit sales for Freedom 125 cc CNG bike in Oct. They r receiving encouraging customer feedback for this product. Going to increase the manufacturing capacity for Freedom Bike to 40k units/ month by Q4
Company sold 16k 3W-EVs in Q2 ( out of a total sales of 1.4 lakh units ). Company’s E-Autos are now available at 700+ locations and now command 35 pc mkt share
Chetak now commands 20 pc mkt share in E-2Ws vs a 10 mkt share in Q1. Upgraded range of Chetaks are scheduled for launch in Mid Nov. Expanding Chetak’s distribution aggressively – should be available in 4000 retail stores by Jan 25. Have also opened 250 Chetak – exclusive stores
Company’s pro-Biking range comprising of KTM + Triumph bikes continue to do well in domestic mkts. Triumph bikes clocked > 10k unit sales in Q2
Company captive finance company is expected to cover 100 pc of company stores by Jan 25. Expected to clock a cash profit starting Q3
The EV portfolio now ( 3Ws + Chetaks ) are running at EBITDA break even – 3Ws are profitable and Chetaks are EBITDA negative
Festive season has seen steep discounting in the 100 cc motorcycle segment. Bajaj has lost mkt share there in the festive season ( till Dusherra ie )
Company’s current manufacturing capacity in Brazil is 20k units. Should go upto 35k units by middle of FY 26
Bajaj Auto Credit Ltd’s AUM now stands at 4000 cr. Expected to grow rapidly – going fwd. Currently having a share of aprox 50 pc in captive financing. Bajaj Auto has so far infused 950 cr into BACL. Intend to infuse another 1200-1400 cr in BACL in H2. Aim to hit an AUM of 10,000 cr by end of FY 25
Company intends to expand the E-3Ws range in a meaningful way starting mid – Nov. Expect to see a newer variants being launched every successive month post Nov
Disc : holding, biased, not SEBI registered, not a buy/sell recommendation