True. If you change it to 3500, you get 523 crs of EBITDA… this is a plug and play very crude model - so you can alter the numbers.
What is clear to me is that with 2.5x capex coming on steam later this year… FY27 numbers can be bumper
True. If you change it to 3500, you get 523 crs of EBITDA… this is a plug and play very crude model - so you can alter the numbers.
What is clear to me is that with 2.5x capex coming on steam later this year… FY27 numbers can be bumper
Marico, a stock which has provided a modest 7% CAGR over the last 3 years is almost ready to come out of its 3-year consolidation zone!
The stock rallied 10% following its Q4 FY24 results as revenues grew 2% YoY after three consecutive quarters of decline and operating margins for the full year were at an all-time high at 21%.
Why are the sentiments upbeat for FY25?
The management alluded that rural growth witnessed a visible uptick towards the end of Q4 and that above-average monsoons would also help. Furthermore, it expects domestic volume growth to trend up consistently from Q1 FY25. Also, with pricing headwinds behind, the domestic revenue growth will outpace volume growth from Q1 FY25.
In terms of concrete guidance, the management is confident of achieving double-digit revenue growth for FY25 (as price drops will anniversarize in Q1 FY25) while holding operating margins at similar levels. It has also laid a roadmap to increase its distribution foothold from 1 million outlets to 1.5 million outlets directly over the next 3 years!
What’s the outlook on Parachute Coconut Oil, which constitutes ~25% of the company’s consolidated revenues?
Parachute has seen a steady recovery over the last 3 quarters amidst the resumption of loose to branded conversions as copra prices have inched up on expected lines. Gradual escalation in copra prices is a positive for Parachute as the company can leverage the brand’s pricing power. In response to the rise in copra prices, the company has implemented price hikes in April’24 to the tune of 6% at the brand level, and it may take another round of price hikes if required.
How’s Saffola edible oil shaping up?
After declining 16% in value terms in FY24, the management expects revenue growth to trend in a positive direction this year as the price base normalizes early FY25. It contributes ~15% to the company’s consolidated revenues.
How’s the Value Added Hair Oil (VAHO) segment faring up?
The segment declined 7% in value terms in FY24 due to sluggish demand and higher competitive intensity at the bottom of the pyramid. The management expects a more rational competitive environment in FY25. It contributes ~15% to the company’s revenues.
Where does the Foods segment stand?
The food business had a healthy Q4 with the key portfolio constituents growing in double-digits. They’ve reached 4x the scale of FY20. The company expanded gross margins of this business by 800 bps in FY24 and expects this to improve further.
With all the building blocks in place, the management aims to double the scale of foods business by FY27.
What about the Premium Personal Care segment?
This segment had a healthy growth trajectory during Q4, with the digital-first portfolio clocking an exit ARR of Rs 450 crores. Beardo has scaled 3x since FY21 and achieved positive EBITDA, and the management aims to deliver a double-digit EBITDA margin in FY25. Plix and Just Herbs have been scaling up with minimal cash burn.
The foods and premium personal care segment combined formed 15% of the consolidated revenues, and the management aims to take it to 25% by FY27.
What’s the outlook for international business?
The company’s International business, constituting ~26% of the overall revenues, grew 9% in constant curreny terms. The company expects to maintain this momentum in FY25 as well.
The Bangladesh business has recovered strongly on a sequential basis amidst a challenging environment. This business is expected to grow in double-digits. Bangladesh’s revenue share in the international business has dropped from 51% in FY22 to 44% in FY24 as other geographies scale up!
Revenue growth in South-East Asia stood flat. The company is seeing a strong ramp-up in the MENA region through the expansion of its hair oil portfolio in Egypt, the Gulf region, and South Africa.
What’s next?
As the company embarks on a journey to strengthen its distribution foothold in the medium term and delivers a healthy revenue-led earnings growth led by a normalizing base and a rebound in rural consumption, the stock becomes worthy of being closely tracked and added at opportune times!
How the per bottle realisation is 4000 when in market it is selling around 3000?(
I don’t have a good answer. I run a very diversified portfolio and I’m very comfortable to hold a company like Avanti. i try to increase allocation when I feel this offers more value vs other ideas.
But yes, last 3-5 years have been a drag. Since last 2 years I have been expecting things to change for the industry to happen but that is not playing out…but with more time I feel that my respect for the underlying business/leadership of Avanti have only increased.
Good results from the company:
Missed the con-call unfortunately, so if someone can post the notes here, that would be great
Protean has an amazing execution track record. Good corporate governance and reasonable valuation. I see good future prospects for the sector as government pushes for digital transformation of governance.
I am an actuary and a full stack developer. I have been in market for close to 6 years.
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