Sahil ji please share your views on these stocks
Posts tagged Value Pickr
JK Paper – Best Bet in Paper Sector? (16-05-2024)
Paper industry management/executives have been talking about weakness for some quarters now.
JK Paper’s results do not reflect this weakness
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/c5290979-4330-4fe8-9a04-8c701516e4ef.pdf
Forensics and the art of triangulation (16-05-2024)
Investors lost almost 99% of their wealth in Brightcom Group and Varanium. So some thoughts on mistakes…!
Investing Lessons from Fraud at Brightcom & Varanium Cloud
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Caution on small companies making big promises on hot new biz (AI, ML etc) where they don’t have experience and resources.
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Stocks are discussed too much on social media by a particular set of people might have an interest in the stock that’s why you are seeing one-sided updates (only positive) of the company
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Don’t just buy because some big investor has bought (his/ her allocation could be less than 1% and your allocation going beyond 40% -60% is scary). They can also go wrong.
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Low PE does not mean its undervalued.
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Doing biz or most biz via foreign subsidiaries is the big problem. BCG have zero focus on India but for its peers India is big market. How can media tech company India could not be big market?? does not make sense
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Don’t fall for it just because Index Funds are buying.
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Don’t believe blindly what everything management is saying. BCG lied about its management in Investor PPt itself.
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Try to connect dots… if so many negatives or fishy things better to avoid them.
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Don’t catch falling knife
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Explosive Growth in P&L without underlying growth in Cash Flows and BS is another disaster.
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Frequent resignations in KMPs and Auditors is another recipe for disaster.
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Selling visions and guidance via press releases does not give confidence.
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Signing MoUs, and deals with unknown companies might be fancy but just on paper.
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Promoters are selling, just accept it. Don’t try to neglect other stories like fundraising ki vajah se holding kam hua ya SHP mai error hai.
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Background of KMPs if looks fishy avoid it.
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The degree and the impact of governance issues needs to be check on overall business and fundamentals. Can ignore if small …
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Rise of retail participation in a stock could be another sign of storified stock
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Asset Allocation is very important, don’t buy the multi-bagger stocks on day 1. Mutlibagger Stocks takes years to create Multibagger Wealth…
Kindly maximise the reach of this to save investors …!
Remember two golden rules
A. Capital Protection is much more important than Capital Appreciation
B. Read Business, Not Stock Prices
Amoul Portfolio (16-05-2024)
I bought it when both AR over Nuvama were trading at a PE of around 30 and AR had a higher ROE and ROCE and also had a dividend yield.
AR grew to 4x in the last 1 year and looks overvalued now, I am thinking of switching to Nuvama.
Jash Engineering – Is it a multibagger (16-05-2024)
Who are the competitors to Jash Engineering? Specially the Water Control Gates wich contributes ~50% of its revenues.
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) (16-05-2024)
Mentioning Notes from Screener:
Operating Context and Financial Performance:
- Softening in prices of key commodities passed on to consumers.
- Nominal to no price growth due to high cumulative inflation and weak monsoon affecting rural demand.
- Urban, organized trade, and premium portfolio led growth for FMCG overall.
- Resilient performance with underlying sales growth of 3% and underlying volume growth of 2%.
- EBITDA margin up 40 bps year-on-year.
- Net profit crossed 10,000 crores in fiscal year.
- Market shares improved by almost 200 bps compared to 2021.
- Small and regional players resurgence affecting market shares marginally.
- Expectation of MAT business winning metric to come back towards the second half of calendar year 2024.
- Underlying volume growth of 2% in Q4.
- EBITDA margin at 23.4%.
- Profit after tax before exceptional items and profit after tax declined by 3% and 6%, respectively.
- Home Care grew 1%, Beauty and Personal Care declined by 2%, Foods and Refreshment had positive pricing and delivered mid-single-digit USG.
- Margins remained healthy in all three segments.
Key Thrust Areas and Business Strategy:
- Focus on growing the core through unmissable brand superiority.
- 19 brands with turnover over INR 1,000 crores each.
- Embarked on a journey of making brands unmissably superior.
- Market making and premiumization focus through persuasive communications, innovating in new demand spaces, and educating consumers.
- Strong portfolio leading growth, contributing to more than 25% of business.
- Transformation in Beauty segment focusing on contemporizing master brands, investing in high-growth demand spaces, and embedding core capabilities.
- Leveraging capabilities to outperform in the Beauty segment.
- Continuous focus on premiumization, innovation, and market penetration.
- Expecting improvements in rural consumption with better monsoon and macro-economic indicators.
- Optimistic outlook for the future with a focus on driving competitive growth and maintaining margins.
Segment Performance:
- Laundry Segment: Powders continue to grow in volume, liquids growing ahead due to faster conversion, bars returning back to growth, focus on premiumization.
- Health Food Drinks (HFD): High single-digit growth driven by pricing and volume growth, Nutrition Plus range accelerating growth, efforts to build consumption yielding results.
- Beauty Segment: Mid-single digit growth, premium portfolio growing in double digits, pioneers in liquids category, focus on premiumization and innovation.
- Soaps Business: Sharp decline in performance, actions taken to address low unit price value equation, premium brands performing well.
- Personal Care Segment: Decline in mass end of the portfolio, premium portfolio showing stronger growth, continued focus on building penetration and consumption in key categories.
- Horlicks and Health Food Drinks: Significant efforts in building penetration and consumption for Horlicks, focus on building premium portfolio and driving growth in the adult space.
Market Share and Channel Strategy:
- Gaining market share in the Beauty and Personal Care segment.
- Recovering market share in categories like mass skin cleansing and detergent bars.
- Focusing on building penetration and consumption in key categories.
- Channel split: under 70% in general trade, under 20% in modern trade, around 6-7% in e-commerce.
- E-commerce growing fastest, followed by modern trade and general trade.
- Quick commerce segment gaining traction within e-commerce.
- Focusing on high margin portfolio in quick commerce, beauty commerce, and marketplace.
Outlook and Future Plans:
- Expecting gradual improvement in FMCG demand.
- Forecast of above-normal monsoons and improving macro-economic indicators.
- Price growth expected to be low single-digit decline in near term.
- Focus on driving competitive volume-led growth across business.
- Actions underway to address performance in the skin cleansing segment.
- No immediate plans for price increase due to deflation in commodity basket.
- Planning for low single digit price increase in the second half of the financial year.
- Targeting 23-24% EBITDA margin band, with focus on maintaining current levels in the short term and modest margin improvement in the medium to long term.
- Unilever planning to separate the ice cream business by second half of 2025, further decisions and strategies to be communicated in the future.
5 Year and 10 Year Median P/E is 64 ad 61. Long Term Median P/E is 47.
Valuations are at 10 Year Low P/E of about 53 at the moment.
5 Year Sales and PAT Growth is 10% and 11%, and Stock Price CAGR is 6%. Slow growth will continue for some time. Price CAGR will depend of P/E re-rating.
NCC: Extremely undervalued (16-05-2024)
A brokerage report from JM Financials says the RE arm - NCC Urban has a good land bank. Does anyone know the details of the total land bank area, location and market value of the same?
Lincoln Pharma … the next mid-cap pharma in the making …? (16-05-2024)
Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Q4FY24 results. Profits rise y-o-y and Q-o-Q, but margins contract. Waiting for management commentary on results before deciding whether to exit or hold.
Skipper Ltd., (Power and Water) a moat in making? (16-05-2024)
Here is a good article related to new Transmission line and power grid policy of America.Renewables Will Skyrocket Under New Transmission Policies Renewables Will Skyrocket Under New Transmission Policies
Beta Drugs Limited (16-05-2024)
Q4FY24 Concall highlights:
- Ebidta declined due to high RM cost (platin which is a gold n platinum derivative)
- Platin cost comprises 14-15% sales
- Platin can’t be manufactured in house.
- Yearly sales breakup:
- Branded: 89 Cr (margin 33-36%)
- CDMO: 140 Cr (margin 15-17%)
- Exports: 46 Cr (margin 28-32%)
- API : 21 Cr (margin 22-23%)
- Derma: 6.83 Cr - halfyearly sales breakup:
- Branded: 41.5 Cr
- CDMO: 68 Cr
- Export: 30 Cr
- API: 11 Cr
- Derma: 3.3 Cr - Ebidta will try to bring to 26% in FY25
- Cosmotology:
- division posted net loss
- guidance FY25 min sales 14-15 Cr
- gross margin is 65%
- plant setup initiate by Fy25-26 ( 30 - 35 Cr)
- recently launched 5 products (haircare, sunscreen, moisturizer)
- Will focus on hair product segment
- Future target 35% of business
- Dr prescribed medicine after Dr approves. - Cleared audit n received registration cert from Urasia
- Cytotoxic syrup facility started
- Own brand, injectable: Oral = 43 : 57
- FY25 guidance 25-30% sales.
- 70% Api in house manufactured.
- 2-3 months will migrate to main board, process already initiated.
- export business target 35% business in future.