This shouldn’t matter and is neutral if they all stocks in proportion of holding. This can benefit if they sell over valued stock which turns out to be under performer. This will be negative if they sell something which turns out to be out performer.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Jagran prakashan (12-05-2024)
While the promoter group is busy flaunting over LinkedIn and other social media platforms. The shareholders lost value over time in this business.
One simple thing such promoters can do is to share cash flows regularly with shareholders however, what they do is completely reverse, they keep that cash in the company and take hefty salaries and perks to enjoy their lavish lifestyle.
Just check what all Aakriti Gupta (the daughter of promoter) is doing over LinkedIn, giving gyan to people over wealth, corporate culture, ethics, business and entrepreneurship etc. while travelling to useless conferences.
Angel One: Metamorphosis into a Fintech? (Previously Angel Broking) (12-05-2024)
Possible to share a .pdf?
Waaree Renewables – old Sangam Advisors – can it keep on renewing? (12-05-2024)
Financial Highlights (as of March 31, 2024)
- Standalone Financial Results:
- Revenue from Operations: ₹27,054.19 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹86,736.13 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Total Income: ₹27,294.07 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹87,548.87 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Profit before Tax: ₹7,151.06 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹20,029.00 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Net Profit: ₹5,278.74 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹14,893.57 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Earnings per Share (Basic and Diluted): ₹5.07 for Q4 2024; ₹14.30 for FY 2024.
- Consolidated Financial Results:
- Revenue from Operations: ₹27,324.76 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹87,643.86 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Total Income: ₹27,458.50 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹87,988.53 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Profit before Tax: ₹7,154.37 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹19,840.89 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Net Profit: ₹5,418.45 lakhs for Q4 2024; ₹14,804.08 lakhs for FY 2024.
- Earnings per Share (Basic and Diluted): ₹5.20 for Q4 2024; ₹14.22 for FY 2024.
Dividend Declaration
- The Board of Directors has recommended a dividend of ₹1.00 per equity share of ₹2.00 each for the financial year ended March 31, 2024.
Assets and Liabilities (as of March 31, 2024)
- Standalone Statement of Assets and Liabilities:
- Total Assets: ₹69,601.98 lakhs
- Total Equity: ₹25,935.54 lakhs
- Total Liabilities: ₹43,666.44 lakhs
- Consolidated Statement of Assets and Liabilities:
- Total Assets: ₹71,402.02 lakhs
- Total Equity: ₹23,202.88 lakhs
- Total Liabilities: ₹48,199.16 lakhs
Cash Flow Highlights (FY 2024)
- Standalone Cash Flow:
- Net Cash Inflow from Operating Activities: ₹11,753.13 lakhs
- Net Cash Outflow from Investing Activities: ₹11,527.69 lakhs
- Net Cash Inflow from Financing Activities: ₹422.96 lakhs
- Consolidated Cash Flow:
- Net Cash Inflow from Operating Activities: ₹12,679.56 lakhs
- Net Cash Outflow from Investing Activities: ₹11,398.02 lakhs
- Net Cash Outflow from Financing Activities: ₹648.03 lakhs
Key Announcements and Notes
- Amalgamation: Approval by NCLT for the amalgamation of Sangam Rooftop Solar Private Limited, Waaree PV Technologies Private Limited, and Waasang Solar Private Limited with Waaree Renewable Technologies Limited.
- ESOP Grants: Issuance of 97,910 options on 22-07-2022, 17,820 options on 28-03-2023, and 10,810 options on 26-10-2023 under the Company’s Employees Stock Option Plan (ESOP) 2022.
- Share Capital Changes: The company has allotted 73,095 equity shares during the year, increasing the paid-up equity share capital from 10,40,74,170 equity shares to 10,41,49,265 equity shares.
- Sub-Division of Shares: Approved sub-division of equity shares from a face value of ₹10 each to ₹2 each.
Disclosure: Invested
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/d9aabcc4-17dc-4c11-9952-a52d7bc68e6c.pdf
Radiant Cash Management Services – Asset Light Play On Cash Logistics (12-05-2024)
Disclaimer: I have vested interest in CMS Info. And, tracking Radiant Cash. Both having different models.
Unable to read Australian Financial Review article due to paywall.
Some differentiating factors in Indian industry from Australian industry:
- Formalisation of economy is still ongoing process in India, benefitting all - retail players, financial institutions and CMS providers. Reduced frictions in capital flow.
- As of now, Indian market is very high density market (my thinking: will continue to remain so due to large population and smaller land mass), making it possible for superior efficiency in logistics (fuel cost per ‘points’ served, and, manpower costs. Operating leverages in play)
- CMS Info management as well as Radiant Cash management both are aware and focussed on building operational efficiencies and lower cost per ‘unit’ served. Either through increasing density, route optimisation or risk management. However, I am not expert to check this theory (opinion based on financial numbers).
- My perception is they are aware of growth in alternative payment (UPI and cards) as they should be (Both companies are focussed on developing alternate lines of business as well - derisking company from purely cash management)
But, they are optimistic about growth of cash usage as well (which supports their business). CIC to GDP growth is just supporting point for their narrative, however, growth in cash usage on absolute basis (especially in formal channels) continues to be true. - Their capital structure is strong, i.e, no leverage which does not put additional pressure on business for positive cashflow generation. I do not know capital structure of Armaguard or Prosegur.
However, I do think there will be pressures in the long run as services like Cash on Delivery etc lose their value. As they have started to already, delivery guys and cab drivers are readily accepting UPI which was not the case before. Hospitals also have constraints that you cannot pay more than 2 lacs in cash. There should be discomforting transition period for companies in future (no prediction about timeline).
Investment thesis in nutshell:
- Cash (currency) will always be an option, purely on the basis of risk management in case of emergencies. Like gold still is.
- Diversification of business (CMS Info initiatives have already started yielding positive results).
- Cash management services should continue to grow, at least in near to medium term. Margins and Free cash flows are also increasing due to this.
- Margin of safety in valuations during investing, attempting to put odds in my favour. I do not know whether I am right or wrong wrt investment, time will tell.
Data Center Value Chain in India: Investment Opportunities (12-05-2024)
good webinar on the data center ecosystem by industry experts organized by the Care Edge team.
Sahyadri Industries (12-05-2024)
The company got a recent patent in “Multi-Layered Breathable Prefabricated Precast Wall panels and Structure” - any visibility on contribution to Topline in non-asbestos category ?
waiting for the concall. source is LinkedIn of MD Sayten Patel
Disc - Invested
Radiant Cash Management Services – Asset Light Play On Cash Logistics (12-05-2024)
To understand the prospects of Indian cash management companies, it might be useful to look at how similar companies have performed in other markets. One parallel example that may be useful is that of an Australian cash logistics company, Armaguard, which is currently fighting to stave off bankruptcy and is negotiating a rescue plan with its potential investors.
The reasons why Armaguard got into trouble in the first place bear some similarities with Indian CMS companies like Radiant. Despite being in an oligopolistic market, a consolidated customer base consisting of banks and large retailers led to price wars between the two largest players in the market, Armaguard and Prosegur. Radiant too has indicated in its concalls that it has been facing pricing pressure from its customers while renewing contracts.In 2022, Armaguard and Prosegur merged but that did not help improve the prospects of the combined entity much due to a faulty business model where the pricing was based on volume of cash handled, which has been declining, while the cost structure is fixed leading to deteriorating unit economics. Radiant too has indicated an increase in the share of volume based revenue model from a fixed price one earlier.
There seems to be a misconception that the cash in circulation (CIC) will not decline as a percentage of GDP in India going forward. While it is true that CIC to GDP ratio has actually gone up since demonetisation, the reasons for this paradox need to be understood better. This working paper from the RBI outlines these.
Reserve Bank of India - Database.
The paper suggests that the recent anomalous growth in CIC-to-GDP ratio was primarily on account of COVID-19 pandemic where household preferred hoarding cash as a hedge against uncertainty arising out of the pandemic. As the effects of the pandemic recede, CIC-to-GDP ratio has started falling again and if this trend is likely to continue in the future then it may not augur well for CMS companies like Radiant who will be forced to fight for increasing their market share of a declining total addressable market (TAM).
Polycab India ~ Connection Zindagi Ka – W&C, FMEG and EPC Player (12-05-2024)
Polycab posted blockbuster Q4-2024 results on 10th May. The company reported 18039 crores of topline and 1803 crores of PAT for full year 2024; the topline was 28% and PAT was 41% higher compared to previous year. For the Q4-2024, topline was 5592 (29% yoy growth) crores and PAT was 553 crores (29% yoy growth). Following are some key call outs & observations from the earnings call
1- The Company is going to achieve the project LEAP topline target of 20K crores ahead of FY2026. The company would come up with a new guidance for the medium term in next few quarters.
2- While the Copper and Aluminium prices have gone up, the company believes that it has robust processes/mechanism in place to protect its margins and so does not see it impacting the profitability.
3- The cables and wires business is growing at a much faster clip – north of 30%. Cables are growing at high thirties and wires at low thirties. The company believes that it has gained the market share from other players and now it has 25% odd share compared to 23% odd a year ago.
4- The demand scenario for the cables and wires is robust, and company believes that with huge impetus from government on Infra it would remain so over the next few years.
5- FMEG continues to be lacklustre. While there is yoy growth in topline, it has come on low base. Also there were couple of one-time expenses which has impacted the profitability of this arm.
6- Polycab is actively working on fixing the identified gaps in FMEG, and expects things to improve in next 2-3 quarters. More focus on Switchgears where margins are better.
7- Exports grew fine except for US where the company is changing the mode of business to distributor oriented (as it is in India). This will make the growth in export look modest for the current year. Expect that all other countries (79 in number) will make up for the moderation brought from US in next couple of years.
8- NOT A SINGLE question asked by analysts on the IT raid. The promoter just said in the beginning that they have been providing all info to the IT department and they do not believe that there would be any material impact.
9- The overall EBITDA margin for the business would be in 12-13% range. For EPC it would be in high single digits.
10- Capex of roughly 1000-1200 crores every year over the next 2-3 years.
11- Polycab is the undisputed leader in cables and wires in India from Sales, growth and profitability point of views. It is far ahead of KEI and Havells in this segment. The tone in the earnings call was upbeat – the management gave enough pointers which leads one to expect the growth momentum to continue – revision in LEAP target, talking about public and private spend on Infra (Renewable – 500 GW, Underground cabling, spends on highways and railways etc.)
12- I expect Polycab to achieve 20% topline growth in FY 2024-25. There are multiple reasons behind this optimism – first, many avenues of growth from Infra push from the government resulting in huge demand for cables and wires. Second, Polycab was operating at 75% odd capacity in this year and so there is capacity available for further growth. Third, the company has demonstrated best in class execution over the years and it is reasonable to believe that it will be able to execute well soon too.
13- With 20% topline growth, and roughly 13 – 13.5% EBITDA and 10% PAT margin, the company should post 2165 crores of profit for FY 2024-25. This will result in EPS of roughly 142. The current market price is discounting this roughly 43 times. I will let all of you do the comparison with KEI and Havells.
14- I request my fellow investors to process the corporate presentation (this is different from earnings presentation) of Polycab. It has plenty of insights for cables and wires business and in general for Power (Renewables, Transmission and Distribution and many more).
I am small retail investor who knows very little. I go wrong with my interpretations and understandings very often. Thank you for reading.
Krishna