Due to relatively better economic fundamentals — including a less volatile domestic currency and better GDP growth momentum — compared to EM peers, the Indian market is touted to benefit from a stronger investor interest.
However, given that the Indian market already commands an overweight since the last one year after the BJP government came to power, a considerable exodus of foreign investment in the wake of a US Fed rate hike can’t be ruled out.
The retreat of foreign portfolio investment (FPIs) in the last one month seems to be supporting this premise even as nothing incrementally negative India-specific factor has played a role behind this liquidation. Since mid-August after China started devaluing yuan, close to $3.4 billion of FPI money has exited India. The change in sentiment is well reflected by a turnaround in their investing. As against buying of $23 million worth of India shares in mid-August, FPIs have been selling $175 million worth of equities on an average in 21 days.
According to Credit Suisse, high FII ownership of Indian stocks is an overhang for the Indian market. Data compiled by FE show that FIIs collectively own close to 17% stake in the BSE-200 universe, with there being as many as 81 companies where they enjoy at least 20% ownership. Credit Suisse, in a recent report, pointed out that falling commodity prices, which stand close to their 2004 levels, are changing trends in trade and capital flow. It notes that oil producers, who earlier exported capital through sovereign wealth funds, are currently facing a combined current account deficit of $100 billion against a $0.5 trillion of surplus, thanks to a near-50% collapse in crude oil pries in the last one year. In this scenario, capital flow from these countries may be reversing and not just slowing, it argues.
“As flows reverse, the seller could be price insensitive, and stocks with the highest rise in FII ownership, of late, could have an overhang,” adds the CS report dated August 31. The brokerage has listed several stocks, which, due to higher FII ownership, may witness selling pressure in the near future. The list includes Tech Mahindra, Eicher Motors, HDFC, Page Industries, Lupin, Idea Cellular and Adani Ports and SEZ that have seen FII ownership increase anywhere between 10% and 31% since March 2011.