Where did you find the company plans to expand capacities by 3.5 times?
Disc. Invested
Where did you find the company plans to expand capacities by 3.5 times?
Disc. Invested
A note on this CDMO product
First lets understand the basic of what is a phosphate binder (OLC is a phosphate binder) and what does it do
There are 7 types of phosphate binder as of date
Sanofi is the market leader here, selling renvela (sevelamer), and has also licensed fosrenol (lanthanum carbonate) to Shire international.
Now why is OLC better then the other 5
Patient compliance- according to the market research in US by nephrologists patient compliance increases significantly with reduced pill burden. The below shows the superiority of OLC. In very simple words, Unicycive has been able to develop some patented nanoparticle tech, through which they are shrinking the size of the pills.
Adverse event profiles (AEs)- in simple words AEs are the side effects
In terms of tolerability, OLC had a low rate of discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) with only 2/86 patients (3.5%) discontinuing from the Study.
Phosphate binding coefficient- as i explained above, the binder absorbs the phosphate, so binding coefficient in very simple words is per gram of medication absorbing the phosphate content in the body. The higher the absorption the better
Oxylanthanum carbonate has the lowest daily phosphate binder dose volume and the smallest volume required to bind 1 g of phosphate compared to all other commercially available phosphate binders.
OLC versus SVH-
Now a thing to be noted is that, even after availability of 6 FDA-approved phosphate binders, hyperphosphatemia remains uncontrolled in an estimated 75% of US dialysis patients.
Maybe this is because of lower patient compliance, as explained above, or these medications aren’t as effective, or that this disease or illness isn’t much cared about.
The only one comparable to OLC is Fosrenol, it is comparable across factors like the no.of tables to be consumer per day, the AEs, the volume required, the absorption.
As we saw above Fosrenol is a lot better then the other binders (excluding OLC), still renvela is the top selling product and Fosrenol doesn’t seem to have been picked up much, this raises doubts as to if fosrenol couldn’t switch renvela, why will OLC.
As of today’s call, the US market alone is 1 billion dollars, and from the data shared above we can clearly see the superiority of OLC against other binders, hence one would expect a quick turnover of products. This also somehow reflects in the confidence of Unicycive, with them willing to fund a whole capex worth $6.5 million with Shilpa, with a contract consisting of binding volumes for 4years
the above data is from the clinical research data of Unicycive and some other sources.
invested here since lower levels, hence biased
If you normalise the earnings for other income and tax, I think the PE will be close to the industry average. I find the stock fairly valued
I agree that company does not have a large moat that will give it a significant competitive advantage. Neither do I think this is a buy and hold forever kind of business. I believe it is play on increasing ROCE and fair valuation in a sector with tailwinds. More often than these are the ingredients of a good investment.
it does not give daily prices and historic prices on daily basis.
Within the CDMO segments for companies under our coverage, we expect robust yoy growth in
1QFY25, led by contribution from new projects, and factor in 71% yoy and 17% yoy CDMO sales growth, for DIVI’s and LAURUS, respectively.
The 25-stock portfolio might simply match the small-cap index performance or it will beat it slightly in the bull market. The real outperformance will come in bear markets when our portfolio will go to cash or sit with performers. Typically over multiple cycles expect 2x the performance of index and a slightly lesser drawdown in a momentum portfolio. It is not a holy grail strategy. From 2020-2024 we haven’t seen a proper bear market so it’s all rosy right now
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