Hey, @ripzc09
So basically quant firms tend to work in a way where they buy a large quantity of stock for a small price movement. If you observe this pattern carefully, you’ll recognize that they mostly tend to buy and sell large breakouts.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Bulk Deals Bi-Weekly Log (18-07-2024)
NewJaisa Technologies: A D2C Refurbished Electronics Play (18-07-2024)
Many companies like HP and ASUS have started selling refurbished products. Big players entering the refurbished market
Companies like Newjaisa can lose their market ?
Wockhardt: an NiCE story (18-07-2024)
Great to read about the valuation and numbers.
Despite the novelty of WCK 5222, I have a different opinion regarding the revenue potential. I believe the majority revenue will come from WCK 4873 (Nafithromycin, trademarked as MIQNAF). I did some number crunching myself and in my opinion, Miqnaf will bring in $1.2b per year as compared to $0.5b of Zaynich, at least initially. Beyond the first few years, as @phreakv6 mentioned, WCK 5222 will open up new opportunities, which may tilt the balance in favor of the later. Both are conservative estimates.
Disclosure: Invested.
Gulf Oil Lubricants – A low risk way to play the economic cycle? (18-07-2024)
“A Guesstimate around Gulf Oil’s Data Centre Cooling Fluid Business”
Emkay Global reiterates a buy on Gulf Oil and revises target price from 1350 to 1500/ share cites an addition of a new product – data centre cooling fluids, says the availability of technical know-how and eventual portfolio addition improves their terminal period outlook.
What makes this upgrade interesting is that it comes days after Mr Ravi S Chawla, the MD of Gulf Oil clarified that at 1.7 GW of DC capacity, DC cooling liquid market in India to stand at 12-14mn-ltr by CY26 E at 100% penetration is a very small proportion of the overall industry volume of 2.9 million tonnes. The proportion of volume of DC cooling fluids of the overall industry volume is really low about 0.001% of the industry volume.
Let’s perform a guesstimate around the terminal period. Let the terminal period be CY 2030 E. (Units – in litres and assumptions are made regarding volumes)
The current volumes in CY 25 end
DC Cooling fluids – 100 L @100%
penetration and proportionate lubricant market size – 100000 L
The volume estimate for CY 30 end
DC Cooling fluids grows 20% annually to 248 L
Overall lubricant market grows at 4% annually to 121665 L
The proportionate share – DC Cooling Fluids would have in Gulf’s Business by CY30 end
Gulf’s current market share in lubricants industry is 6% (varies across segments but let’s take this aggregate for convenience), shows how fragmented the market is – Gulf being second largest player.
Let’s also assume Gulf Oil gains 1.5% market share, which is a pretty hard task as lubricants are a sticky proposition
With that market share the overall lubricant volume of Gulf Oil shall be – 9124 L
Gulf’s DC cooling fluid volumes – 85L with below mentioned assumptions
Let’s assume Gulf holds 40% share in this segment – since this is a niche segment we expect other respected peers like Castrol, Savita Oil Tech and others seize the opportunity to grab some market share.
Let’s also assume that the penetration of DC fluid remains 85% – not everyone switches to them some still use air conditioners.
Conclusion – “The proportion of DC cooling fluids volumes of overall business volume by CY30 end would be only 0.93%, let’s assume it to be in the range of 1-2%, which doesn’t seem to improve my terminal period outlook. “
Trent — A value unlocking story from the house of TATA (18-07-2024)
Thanks for your reply, Trent was at 1700 level last year July and was 35% of my portfolio. In last 10 -12 months the the momentum was so strong that the stock more than tripled from its last July level. It was difficult for me to exit as I wanted to ride the momentum, Trent has almost doubled my entire equity portfolio in just 12 months. This is a pleasant problem to have. I am 59 and have 55% in equity. Normally I keep only 45% in equity and 55% in debt funds, but this excess in equity is thanks to bull run, I am going to rebalance slowly to make it 50/50. The problem is when to start reducing Trent. I am not in a hurry as I already have my expenses covered by interest income on Debt part of my portfolio. I have experience of my equity portfolio going down by 60% and then recovering back. I plan to go passive when I reach 70.
Tanla Platforms ~ Leading player in the fast-growing CPaaS market (18-07-2024)
In the letter to Shareholder, CEO says that the agreement with the Global Tech Giant (which is Whatsapp as per ET article above), has global mandate – this is very interesting !!
Bulk Deals Bi-Weekly Log (18-07-2024)
Can you kindly elaborate how we can use quantitative trading firm buy sell data to predict breakouts in stocks?
Srivari Spices and Foods Limited (18-07-2024)
Anyone attended the Concall?
KEI Industries Ltd – A consistent performer over the last decade (18-07-2024)
Exactly, my only worry is that overvaluation can persistent for a very long time. If there is some positive news on Capex in the budget we can again see an upward momentum and the wait for fair valuations will be longer.
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (18-07-2024)
The hotels took a bad cycle during that phase due to over capacity and also due to whole Real Estate sector suffering. On top of that they had alot of leverage so execution was tough. The real question here to answer is given the FCF generation and potential to delever in the next few years is Samhi cheaper than the peer group? do they deserve a better multiple?