A wonderful essay on Cell Biology that reminded me of Bill Bryson’s writing.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Smallcap momentum portfolio (06-07-2024)
As a newcomer, I am not sure how to enter into this momentum portfolio. The previously selected stocks are doing well, but are they still good for new entries? Is the momentum of these stocks still going to keep up? Are there new stocks that would be better options? I would really appreciate any advice that the more experienced users could give me.
Syngene International (06-07-2024)
Complete exit for me post holding since 2020 realizing this is not better than a mutual fund return for longer term and current valuations are not in attractive.
Shemaroo Entertainment (06-07-2024)
Shemaroo had decent sales growth in FY24, they have finally started charging off inventory which will suppress their profitability in next couple of years. They are targeting debt reduction of 100 cr. in next 2-years. Concall notes below.
FY24Q4
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Expenditure on new ventures was 10.5 cr. in this quarter (vs 1.1 cr. in Q4FY23). FY24 expenses: 81.5 cr. (vs 54 cr.). They had budgeted 75 cr. costs
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Expenditure on new ventures will be ~50 cr. in FY25. Have significantly slowed down investments in OTT division (Shemaroo ME). Hoping to breakeven in broadcasting in 4-5 quarters
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Change in inventory accounting:
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Increased inventory charge off (will reduce inventory by 40-45% in next 2-years; not considering new content); this means 35-40 cr. quarterly costs.
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Depending on certain type of content and its aging, they did 10 year charge off earlier which is now shortened to 2-10 years
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10 cr. incremental writeoff this quarter because of change in policy (accounted in operational costs)
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Reduction in debt: will reduce debt by 100 cr. in next 2-years. New business will require less investments going ahead
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Majority of FY24 growth was driven by traditional B2B business (37.6%). Digital media grew by 11.4%
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MarathiBana: moved it from free dish space to paid, had to completely revamp this
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Advertising demand: FMCG is slowly coming back, yet to see recovery from e-commerce
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Have their team in place, incremental hiring will be little
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Shemaroo GEC channels have 7.1% of Hindi GEC viewership (vs 7.6% in FY24Q3). Their recent original shows have not done well which has reduced their viewership share
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Debt: 338 cr. (vs 362 cr. in December 2023); had guided for debt of 290 cr. by in FY24
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Inventory: 682 cr. (vs 727 cr. in December 2023)
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Digital revenue breakup (63.9 cr. up 19.9% YOY)
Disclosure: Not invested (no transactions in last-30 days)
Smallcap momentum portfolio (06-07-2024)
@visuarchie I was trying to build a back testing framework to see historical returns for a momentum portfolio giving different input weightage/near far momentum etc. If I take the current index constituents, it may not be correct when we go back in time. Do you know where to find the index constituents history?
ValuePickr Raipur (06-07-2024)
Hi, I am Rajesh from bhilai .it ll be a good idea to create a forum to discuss investing ideas
Bajaj Finance Limited (06-07-2024)
If you are referring to the fact that even though BHFL profit raises, share of BFL will reduce because of stake sale, that should be fine considering they will sell at higher price to book and they will good cash from this transaction.
Moreover this Housing arm is not such a great profitable business compared to parent business. CRAR is already at 20-ish range, but generating a RoE of only 15-ish range. Offcourse book grown at great pace, but all this major growth is funded by capital from BFL. But after IPO, as and when new funding requirement araises, it will happen in open market and at a higher PB, this will provide lot of inorganic returns through valuation rerating.
But since bajaj finance itself is a good business and listing a subsidiary does not make much of a diffrence. This is more or less like a neutral event(My thought).
Samhi Hotels – Turnaround with Tailwinds (06-07-2024)
Management said they are targeting 3.5x Net debt/EBITDA by the end of FY25 and the Interest cost for FY25 will be 200cr as the interest rate is 9.8%, hence the net debt is 2000cr. Current cash balance is 260cr, assume the cash balance is same next year as well and the generate cash flow is being used to bring down the debt.
Net debt at the end of FY25 = 2000-260 = 1740cr
EBITDA = 1740/3.5 =497cr
Considering valauation of 21x EV/EBITDA: EV= 10440cr
Market cap = EV-debt = 10440-2000 = 8440cr
upside of 2x
Note: Samhi hotel is trading at the lowest valuation in its peer group. With improved balance sheet the valuation perhaps either remains same (21x) or increases, and less likely to decrease.
Pharma Industry update (06-07-2024)
can you send the link for the same