valuation is tricky I am not an advisor , I use DFC with my own growth numbers and terminal multiples and I see that for me its undervalued but I do not know how it al turns out .
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Great articles to read on the web (21-07-2024)
Today more n more people are using online screeners like screener.in, tickertape, etc., which don’t capture lot of critical parameters which is needed to detect possible manipulation of accounts. The following link is a good read, to help you to understand red flags.
PayTM (One 97 Communications Ltd) (21-07-2024)
It is due to RBI regulation on Feb 23 that restricts onboarding of new customers until migration of existing customers to new handles is complete and you have to take customer consent before giving them new upi handle. Basically since the psp bank is going to be changed from PPBL to other banks RBI is looking at it as if it is a case of fresh UPI registration. Don’t know how long this saga will continue before allowing them to onboard new customers. What’s interesting is that existing customers started getting messages since yesterday like this “ Paytm is now powered by 4 banks!
We are creating new UPI ID with these banks to ensure seamless payments. If you wish to opt out, tap https://m.paytm.me/UPInew“. Whether the regulator had permitted them to do this or not is unknown. If it is a no, they will again be in the crosshairs. Uff. But killing it you will end up having a foreign controlled duopoly in the countries payment system. Interesting times in payment space!!!
What a wealth destroyer PAYTM has been. From a listed price of 1800 to 450 now, a 75% evaporation. The dangers of buying a stock based on narratives.
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Having said that, I think the worst seems to be over for now in terms of firefighthing: monthly transacting users have stabilised in the range of 7-8 crores and merchant subscription at 1 crore.
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How the company is going to generate value going forward is a metric to be seen but is it not the case with all the new age companies ; Nykaa at 50k crore valuation; Zomato at 1.93L crore valuation with thr estimation of profitable cash flow assumptions stretching in to 15-20 years to make sense of these valuations.
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The value of a payment business is not in transactional revenue but in the data and the insights it generates. Imagine an insurance company cross checking your declaration that you’re not a smoker by requesting the data from payment companies for a fee(a daily debit of Rs.18/-). Paytm still holds 8-9% market share in UPI transactions and with the regulator wanting to cap the market share of each TPAP at 30%, it can only be beneficial to Paytm if it manages the risks outlined in pt.1 well enough.
Disc: Not invested. Interested and studying further.
Companies with multiple growth engines (21-07-2024)
Hi All,
Another company which is falling under this category is Angel one. Though regulatory changes are big overhang for the company but it’s growing at blitz scale.
- Revenue growth 70%+.
- PAT growth 30%+.
- PATH growth is slower due to higher Marketing expenses (mostly due to IPL) and addition of new business which are not contributing to topline. I feel PAT margins can increase once other verticals start contributing.
- Trading at P/E of 15 which is lower than median P/E of 20.
Discl: Invested
Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Limited: Powering Ahead (21-07-2024)
Hello,
In the below tracker, I have started tracking important company goals for Amara Raja.These goals are referred to as ‘monitorables’ in the tracker.I will update this document regularly to reflect the current status of these goals.
Here’s a snapshot of what the tracker includes:
- Company Ticker: For identifying the company
- Monitorable Description: Description of the goal or metric being tracked
- Date of Announcement: When the monitorable was announced
- Deadline: Target date for achieving the monitorable
- Status: Current progress (e.g., Not Fulfilled, Pending)
- Verification Link: A link to see where we got the information about the goal.
I hope this information makes it easier to observe how well companies are progressing towards their stated goals.
Screenshot of the tracker below:
Full tracker attached below:
Tracking Company Monitorables-22.xlsx (132.2 KB)
Unihealth Medical Consultancy – The Caplin of Hospitals? (21-07-2024)
So now whom we depend upon? on management- who are they? I couldn’t find enough on them, their history or on their family/credibility!
The only variable basis which now I can mitigate this risk is “time”. So i’ve to see their performance for next few quarters/years.
Ujjivan Financial – Small Finance Bank (21-07-2024)
HDFC bank doesn’t have any promoters. Most companies are professionally run with ESOPs incentivizing the C-suite and managerial employees to perform.
Elecon Engineering Limited (21-07-2024)
You will keep it in bank or in some debt funds or zerodha’s liquidcase?
Zydus Lifesciences (Erstwhile: Cadila healthcare) (21-07-2024)
@Aakash_Suresh Kindly dwelve on current valuation of the company also for fresh entry. Thanks