Company’s management will be participating in the following group
analyst/ investor meetings:
Date Name Location
May 31, 2024 Trinity India B&K Securities Conference Mumbai
June 3, 2024 Nuvama India Conference 2024 London
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Neuland Laboratories Limited – Transformation towards niche APIs? (28-05-2024)
Godawari Power – Any Trackers? (28-05-2024)
Dear Members if possible please share your feedback.
I think the best way to track GPIL is keeping a tab on the iron ore prices. All the other forward integrations measures (Integrated Steel Plant) will take time to fructify. Till then we need to just focus of Iron Ore prices and capacity additions.
Ive also tried to draw a comparison between the two other iron ore miners under the old royalty scheme based on FY’24 numbers. PFA the comparative table below:
| GPIL | Lloyd Metals | Sandur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| M.Cap | 11994 | 34863 | 8761 |
| CMP | 882 | 690 | 541 |
| Sales | 5455 | 6522 | 1252 |
| EBITDA | 1328 | 1728 | 320 |
| EBITDA % | 24.34% | 26.49% | 25.56% |
| PAT | 936 | 1243 | 238 |
| PAT% | 17.16% | 19.06% | 19.01% |
| Net Cash | 1056 | 265 | -74 |
| EV | 10938 | 34598 | 8835 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.24 | 20.02 | 27.61 |
| P/E | 12.81 | 28.05 | 36.81 |
| Net Blcok | 2364 | 1235 | 886 |
| CWIP | 430 | 1268 | 116 |
| AssetTurn | 2.31 | 5.28 | 1.41 |
| RoA | 40% | 101% | 27% |
| Equity+ Reserve | 4496 | 2811 | 2157 |
| RoE | 21% | 44% | 11% |
| IronOre Capacity (in MMT) | 3 | 10 | 3.81 |
| IronOre Prod (in MMT) | 2.3 | 9.7 | 1.97 |
| Production Guidance | 6 | 55 | NA |
| Lease Expiry | 2057 | 2057 | 2033 |
Sandur also has manganese ore which is on a high these days.
Lloyd has crazy expansion plans.
GPIL is the cheapest company out of the three.
HUDCO Urban Development – Will it develop the investor too? (28-05-2024)
Any company in India with ROE of 30%. Can grow at 25% CAGR and has cash flows that can allow company to pay 40% dividend payout and is available at 10xFY26 earnings?
Let’s see:
HUDCO’s unique company profile allows it to function majorly differently than a conventional NBFC. HUDCO majorly lends to state governments which has a very low risk weight by RBI.
This will allow HUDCO to grow its loan book to ~3 times of current loan book without any need for any equity capital infusion this will push the ROE’s to 30% in 2 years. This is a very unique characteristic in any Indian NBFC and makes it necessary for investors to think beyond the standard norm of looking at HUDCO on price to book multiple.
As the equity capital is not required by HUDCO to grow, HUDCO can payout huge dividends around 40% of annual profits (unlikely case in any NBFC). Also this high dividend payout keeps the book value of the company lower and valuing it on price to book is not appropriate. Even the borrowers are mostly state governments and loans are asset backed causing NPA’s to be ~0.36% (lowest in industry)
Management has given strong guidance of almost doubling the loan book in 2 years with NIM expansion potential and beyond that also they for see ~ 22% CAGR. This means in 2 years HUDCO can report ~5000cr profits. (Currently ~2000 crs)
Now if we put all above facts and figures in a summary. HUDCO is a company where their loan book growth is not dependent on equity capital (book value) and the chances of NPA are almost absent (due to lending to government). Valuing it on price to book value is not logical. And must be valued like a manufacturing company with strong cash flows, ROE’s and Growth.
HUDCO with an equity capital of 14k crs can report Profits of 5000 crs. (30% ROE) by fy26. NPA’s are virtually absent so no negative surprises. Can payout 40-50% of thier earnings as dividend.
HUDCO is that rare company that is still valued at 10xFy26 despite these strong growth, ROEs and Cashflows.
Ganesh Housing- A Potential Play for Housing for All theme? (28-05-2024)
Sir company seems to do very good business good results but why market is not rerating it? Any idea or anything I am missing out? Thanks
Schneider Electric Infrastructure: A global company with advantage of a industry tailwind: (28-05-2024)
The provisions are made for anticipated higher tax outgo. They were expected the tax case to be in their favor but the recent developments have made them believe that they may not get a favorable outcome. This was clarified in the concall.
Unihealth Medical Consultancy – The Caplin of Hospitals? (28-05-2024)
Well to be frank if you look at their revenues, 60% of revenue is generated from UMC Victoria (Uganda). There is still long way to go or as matter of fact lets just say another player is able to establish himself around same regions eating up his margins. So they need to walk the talk now , awaiting to see progress over addition of 2000 beds.
Also the company that begun its operations in 2010 as Medical tourism has not scaled up or failed to do so in this vertical. The other two vertical also are generating negligible revenues, management has not given clear guidance over how are they going to scaleup other 3 verticals apart from hospitals.
Manappuram Finance (28-05-2024)
MGFL-RR-26052024-27-May-2024-895157100.pdf (1.0 MB)
Manappuram Finance Ltd – Q4FY24 Result Update – 27052024_27-05-2024_11.pdf (848.6 KB)
Even Axis Securities giving a target of Rs. 220 as per attached report from them.
Aster DM healthcare (28-05-2024)
Any news on Q4 Results ?
Mangalam Organics Ltd. – A promising Pine chemistry story (28-05-2024)
Price resumed downward trend or its stabilizing at 115-120
Maharashtra seamless-a value plus cyclical play (28-05-2024)
As Ganesh previously indicated, the scenario is unfolding as expected. After reaching peak margins, the price is now declining. I anticipate a period of stagnation before any potential momentum, which would likely depend on an increase in volume or margins.