Sources say, government is reportedly planning a new PLI scheme for the power sector, aiming to expand the underground cable network aggressively.

So this is my take on the results. I am adopting an extremely simplistic view here so feel free to challenge this as I am NO expert whatsoever. The margins are more or less stable (didn’t deteriorate as some feared). QoQ, the improvement is visible across sales, margin and PAT. Given the overall headwinds, I believe the results are not bad. Given their cash on books, no or very little debt, able management and forward looking capex plan to double down on exports, I would assume it can only go up form here. Many risks seem factored into the current price. And another thing that I have started to look at, since recently, is this (I think i read this in some book of Minervini’s), if you cant make up your mind on how the results actually are, given it a few days and the market will reflect it in the price action. Again, this could be a very naive way of looking at things, but I do think it makes sense since the bigger platers are usually smarter than us when it comes to reading the results. So, from that perspective too, I believe the results didn’t spell doom.

Good results by ADF foods. Some selected excerpts from the concall. Overall the business is growing steadily and management seems confident about the future backed by financial numbers

Best ever quarter in terms of revenue as well as profitability matrix on a standalone and consolidated basis led by increasing volumes and better product mix.

Revenues surpassed the 500 crore milestone in financial year 24 on a consolidated basis.

Consolidated EBITDA margin was at 20.2%, which is well above our target of high teens.

Consolidated revenues increased by 24.8% to 153.6 crores on a year on year basis back of demand backed by demand let growth.

We are seeing a marked improvement in this growth, hence expect it to be sustainable in the future as well.

We continue to witness strong demand across all our brands. Our flagship brand, Ashoka saw continued addition of new products and launched in new markets as well as increase penetration in existing markets.

Our India focused brand Soul has seen an initial good response. We are finalizing new product launches and we expect to launch Soul in the modern trade in the last quarter Financial year 25. We’ve committed an investment of 13 crores for Soul in financial year 25.

We are aspiring to achieve 100 crore revenue within the next three to four years in the domestic business.

Our truly Indian brand has been launched in the US and we’ve seen a good response by by way of listings in various supermarkets. This brand too is currently in an investment mode.

We have a new team in the US and will be investing in this brand to target the mainstream audience.

Our agency distribution business has not grown the way I would have liked. However, I would like to state that the same is not due to any demand issues. Rather, it has been tampered by supply chain issues. Our principles are working hard to sort the supply chain issues and we are optimistic that these issues will be sorted out, resulting in a good growth in financial year 25.

We continue to be bullish in terms of our outlook for 25 and expect revenue growth to be upwards of 20%.

Margins at high teen margins on a consolidated basis.

Broken ground in our Surat Greenfield projects and have committed 75 crores for phase one expansion. (Expansion will cater to both new as well as existing lines for our frozen foods.)

got listed in two more chains in the US which will give us for the truly Indian brand

spending of almost 75 crores in the Surat Greenfield Project It will give us almost a top line of 250 to 275 crores. So that’s our expected top line.

continue to increase our advertising and marketing spend, in fact, so we are very committed in growing our brands, which is why even on truly Indian and soul, we are making investments in the brand.

Truly Indian is for the mainstream market now. The mainstream market like in the US for us is new. So we’ve got a huge runway there. It’s a much larger audience that you’re catering to. Indian food overall is getting more and more popular in, in the United States

Are you going by quantitative parameters alone, or would you be adding some qualitative observations too, in the future?

Unlike a stock, which can be assessed quantitatively, particularly in the context of trading, assessing mutual funds for long term does not appear straightforward. Managers may change their views depending upon market conditions and this can impact the returns. Value oriented managers may miss rising scenarios but can be relatively better when the tide turns. Churning more based on quantitative factors like Quant does could be different. A fund manager may have caught a few stocks early on, which may have changed the returns entirely, and it may not be repeated again, his later calls may not yield as much. So there are some qualitative arguments beyond the numbers.

And if you are doing this for yourself, and if you are interested have have got time, there is a lot of information of knowledge in the forum, to do the same quantitative analysis, TA, of stocks, instead of MF, which has the possibility of delivering more returns, where you have all the control.

Concall Summary Date: 13 May 2024 FINE ORGANIC INDUSTRIES LIMITED

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

• On a YoY basis, the EBITDA declined by 29.1% YoY ₹143.5 crore, and the EBITDA margin stood at 26.2%.

• On a QoQ basis, the revenue from operations increased by 12% and EBITDA grew by 21.3%.

• In FY24, the EBITDA declined by 35.7% YoY to ₹534 crore and EBITDA margin stood at 25.2% (v/s 27.5% in FY23).

• The cash and cash equivalents & bank balance stood at ~₹961 crore in FY24 (v/s ₹497 crore in FY23).

BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

• In FY24, ~52% of the total revenue from operations was from exports

• The domestic market performance was partially offset by the global slowdown impact.

• Fine Organic customers are located worldwide including Europe, North and South America, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, Japan, and China.

• Stable demand dynamics have led to a steady pricing environment for vegetable oil. The company does not foresee much volatility in the price for the next few months

• The company witnessed some headwinds for exporting goods to Europe and the US due to the Red Sea crisis.

• Currently, the company’s all plants are running at optimal capacity except the Patalganga plant.

• The Patalganga plant was started in March 2022. It will take another 2-3 years to run at full capacity utilization.

• The company witnessed recovery in all the regions except Europe.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

• For the Maharashtra Special Economic Zone (SEZ) plant, the company is waiting for land allotment letter. The SEZ land area is ~30 acres. The plant would be commissioned by the end of FY26 and primarily cater to the export market.

• The management expects the Thailand plant to be commissioned by the end of June 2024. This is a very small plant. The initial focus would be on small trial production of a product. Further investment decisions would be determined after the performance of the trial production.

• The company would incur investment for capacity expansion in the new SEZ plot, exploring acquisition opportunities and it is also considering putting up the plant outside India. It plans to utilize its cash and bank balance for the same.