So do you think that the current falling trend in share price is due to the one-off bad quarter and this might revert in future?

It was very nice of you to find your precious time and suggest me, i will definitely take that into consideration, BTW i have adopted a similar approach in the case of finding out tone of the management.

If you see that section, it has come up with extracts of the text.

Talking about GPT, it not like that, i haven’t copied and pasted the text in GPT, i have done some prompting and this whole things is achieved using Gemini and via codding, where you need to give the code just the file path of the .pdf file and it would do the heavy tasking, BTW the questions are fixed as mentioned above.

Thanks for the interesting comparison. Sula’s usp and success has been because of the vineyards ecosystem which it sells as tourism as well. Is it possible to outsource parts of wine making process and just hold the farms i.e. production and later marketing/selling/distribution? Has some other global wine company done that?

Aslo the issue with ROE, competetion, inventory you mentioned…is it same for beer and spirits company also? For spirits the same thing of ageing also applies…would be good to know your thoughts.

I am not suggesting to add defensive stocks. On the contrary, I am saying with your approach you will end up with defensive stocks. The objective should be lower volatility at a portfolio level and that can be achieved even by including cyclicals, if the portfolio stocks are uncorrelated or negatively correlated with each other.

On measure of volatility, I will try to write sometime later this week. Meanwhile you can look at a metric called Average True Range (ATR) until then.

KRBL

I feel KRBL offers an opportunity for an asymmetric bet:

The stock price has taken a big hammering in the last few months. Some of it is of course because the business didn’t do relatively well in the last couple of quarters; as per my understanding the reason for that is the export business to the gulf countries took a hit because of a multitude of reasons

(1) the relationship with the distributor in Saudi Arabia didn’t work out…while they are looking for a new distributor but as of today their exports to the country are almost nil
(2) business in Iran has taken a hit because of the ongoing conflict in the region
(3) shipments are delayed/expensive because of Houthi situation

In my view all the issues above a transitionary and should sort themselves out in due course. Additionally, in the last concall the MD said that Europe exports are growing at a fast clip + they are working hard towards finding a new distributor in Saudi Arabia.

Disc: invested; this is not a buy/sell recommendation, please do your own due diligence