What’s your thesis on Arman financial?
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) (11-04-2024)
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has directed Grid-India to implement, on a shadow pilot basis, three key initiatives. Firstly, the coupling of the Real-Time Market of the three power exchanges. Secondly, the separate coupling of the Real-Time Market at the three power exchanges along with SCED. Thirdly, the coupling of the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) of the three power exchanges.
In their order, they specified that Grid-India must develop the necessary software required for running the shadow pilot within two months from the date of the Order i.e 6th February 2024.
As for the current status of software development by Grid India, it’s uncertain. If anyone has information regarding whether Grid India has completed the development of the software, it would be valuable. Once the software is developed, the next step would be to implement the shadow pilot for a period of four months.
Annapurna Swadisht Ltd – A Swadisht FMCG investment? (11-04-2024)
The arihant capital interaction is out : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKiEB78ieKA
E2E Networks Ltd – Listed small Cloud computing player (11-04-2024)
Latest Investor presentation from E2E networks. Seems they are already procured 140 CR on GPU (450 nos of H100 GPUs) from planned 200 to 250 cr this financial year. in last qtr concall, CEO was saying, they would procure 30 to 40 CR GPU in first batch. but looks like they are giving conservative no in concall.
Disclosure: Invested
Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd (11-04-2024)
Very good analysis Pankaj. HAL is also planning to procure huge no of 5 axis CNC to ramp-up Tejas production. HAL is not listed in customers list.
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (11-04-2024)
I don’t follow the companies you have mentioned, but still expressing my views w.r.t the question alone.
Have you been following the businesses and their stories? If combined with what has happened till now, these conference calls may sound normal.
Reading a transcript provides with the details of the business, but not the tone of the people who give those details. Not to mention the errors with sentences which sometimes miss certain important words. So in this sense listening helps, but what you have said is true too.
So, watching old interviews can help, accents will be the same but body language and the expressions (not that they cannot be hidden) accompanying words can provide a better understanding, some inferences can be made if they always talk like that, be it video or call, or they talk differently. I remember an interview of DHFL’s management after their fiasco, when asked a question, it was frustrating for them I guess, they expressed it visibly.
As you have said, they deal with international clients, so maybe such vibrant answering is expected, as opposed to a mundane, mechanical session, even if it provides the answers. Not that those international clients cannot ascertain what is what.
So if looked at conjunction with business, I guess more picture emerges, and one can draw any inferences, as we hear about a view of investors that some managements overstate and under deliver.
Just some thoughts, not invested in any of the names mentioned.
Rajesh’s portfolio (11-04-2024)
I am invested in Presstonic and Basilic and am very hopeful of great results in H2 and future too. Let us see, rest have not sutdied so cant say.
Investing Basics – Feel free to ask the most basic questions (11-04-2024)
How can i check that , if you can explain please.
Smallcap momentum portfolio (11-04-2024)
Hello everyone , i am doing these momentum strategies for almost 3 years now , i wold like to share my experience
- I run these strategies on cnx200 and smallcap 250 ,
Pros - when market is in good swing , you make extremely good returns – ( this fy cnx200 returns are north of 80%)
- There is not much to think and just follow a plain approach which does the job , already listed in the forum above
- You automatically find the best sectors and ride the full trend without even looking at charts
- position sizing and shifting from one stock to other is very easy as most of us are retailers here
Cons –
- when the momentum ends we loose most of the gains – eg if we hold a stock at 5% initial then it can become 10 or 15 % of weight at some point of time … booking out the gains is very importat at that point as if this stock corrects it hits the portfolio the most
- the bear and sideways markets , well i have spent a lot of time on this and my view is you should exit / partly exit in case of bear markets . Momentum portfolio will do extremely bad in these kind of markets , either take an technical exit or a exit based on market breadth or gold to equity ratio or find something which gives a exit signal
- SIP vs lumpsum – i have had difficultly with when to add capital once a move starts and hence i advice people to go with lumpsum investment with these kind of portfolios , see if a stock moves 2x … why would i add to it ? , instead what i do is … i only add to the newcomers into the portfolio whenever i want to add capital . it helps with peace of mind
- Tax – these are mostly short them investments and hence 15% tax rate we have to give every year despite reinvesting the profits . this makes a dent on overall returns compared to sip where only long term tax (10%) is taken
To conclude , momentum portfolios are good to support overall return of a portfolio only if you know when to exit . The last 10 years backtest has given me almost 4% additional cagr ( approx 19 to 20% ) compared to traditional investment like sip … also if you have exits the drawdown is pretty low compared to MFs .