Hydrogen engine and ADAS could be game changer for Bosch. Growth kicks in.
Posts tagged Value Pickr
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (21-03-2024)
Thank you for sharing such queries that makes all of us to revise what we learnt once in a while.
Please refer the book’s Chap 4 – Volume Price Analysis – First Principles, Pg 69 , Fig 4.13
Quoting some excerpts from the text :
we can see a narrow spread candle with high volume which, is an anomaly.
There is only one conclusion we can draw.
The market is starting to look weak, and is typical of a candle pattern that starts to develop at the top of a bullish trend, or the bottom of a bearish trend.With the narrow spread candle and the high volume, the question we might reasonably ask, is ‘who is actually selling here?
The specialists have driven prices higher, but the market is now struggling at this level.
They are selling to the market to clear their warehouse, but the buyers are not there in sufficient numbers to move the price higher, as it is constantly knocked back by longer term traders, selling out and taking their profits off the table.They maintain the price at the current level attracting more buyers in, who are hoping to jump into the trend and take some easy profits, but the sellers keep selling, preventing any real rise in price.
In this case, the stock went into consolidation once that anomaly candle appeared and was a good sign to get out.
The stock consolidated for the next 3 months and gave a breakout on Nov 8th, exactly above the high of the anomaly candle on a high volume.
You will also notice that this is also the point when 10 EMA went above the 20 EMA.
Again all this is in hindsight, I am also learning. VPA experts like Karthik Marar would have usually drawn a parallel line to the high and low of such anomaly candle and waited for the price to breakout of either of the line to take a decision.
Shakti Pumps – solar shakti (power)! (21-03-2024)
My thoughts on this, last qtr they did 500cr and the management has claimed they have the capacity to do 2500cr rev from the current capacity. So from last qtr’s number they are already at 2000cr run rate which brings them to 80% utilisation. Since the orders have now started kicking in and management must be anticipating larger orders and wants to be prepared to cater to orders beyond the 2500cr mark. But yes the risk is if the orders which they are anticipating for any reason does not come in will again lead to sitting on huge underutilised capacity along with the dilution.
Sugar Cycles: 7-8 years of losses followed by 2-3 years of super gains! (21-03-2024)
Cane based ethanol is not sustainable in the long run. It takes up too much water. If the crude prices remain in control, the government might not push too much towards ethanol blending unless it comes from grain based sources. Just my perspective.
Balrampur chini mills promoters also bought recently.
Ugro Capital – Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value (21-03-2024)
FCF is not a relevant metric for valuing a financial institution. Because FCF calculations exclude the major source of earnings for an FI, interest income.
Here is a doc which will be of help to understand FI valuation
Even if Ugro wouldn’t have been an FI, most likely its FCF would have been negative as it is currently in Capex/rapid expansionary mode which requires lots of front loaded investments.
Usha Martin – Coming out of the Chaos (21-03-2024)
It’s due to promoter change.
Bull therapy 101-thread for technical analysis with the fundamentals (21-03-2024)
A huge red candle isn’t always a bearish pattern. All it means is a large volume of shares have been traded at a price lower than the last trading day. Now you need to check if there was a significant price drop on the same day? If not, it could be that shares where exchanged between two big institutations. A one time event like this can be seen in most stocks and can usually be ignored.
Ugro Capital – Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value (21-03-2024)
It’s a financial institution, unlike other companies, they do not throw lots of cash flows. Banks are built to sell cash. For reference check the snap shared by Mohit in the post above, even Bajaj, shriram, HDFC bank, etc. have negative cash-flow.
Usha Martin – Coming out of the Chaos (21-03-2024)
Has anyone idea, why promoter group is continuously selling shares??? Is there any problem with the fundamentals or any news??
Ugro Capital – Opportunity To Invest in a Fintech-like Company Below Book Value (21-03-2024)
Why is their FCF so negative?